NFL 2011 Mock Draft round 1: picks 1-12

Now that it is bowl season this will be the last time we see all the pro prospects in real football game situations. I do not count the senior bowl and other bowls like that as real games because the defenses are very vanilla. The bowl games are a better barometer of the in game skills each prospect has. The draft order is based on current NFL standings.

1. Carolina Panters: Andrew Luck, QB Stanford. Carolina is starting Armanti Edwards currently. All of the Michigan Wolverine fans know who that is, but nobody else does. Their quarterback situation has gone from bad to ugly at a faster pace than a Ferrari. It really is a shame because the Panther running game isn't bad with DeAngelo Williams (before he went on IR), Jonathan Stewart (90+ yards/game since returning from injury), and Mike Goodson (versatile change of pace back who is also good on special teams). Additionally, they have a solid deep threat in Steve Smith that can stretch the defense. Overall, Andrew Luck will test out at John Elway levels and makes all the sense in the world for Carolina and whoever their new coach is (my prediction is Luck's Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh).
2. Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Mallett, QB Arkansas. This pick strictly depends on what happens with Carson Palmer. There is a chance that he is not in Cincinnati next year and then this pick makes all the sense in the world. I also think that even if Carson is still in Cincy that this pick still makes sense because then Mallett can have a year to look and learn how to not play quarterback with talented receivers. Cincinnati is another team that is not this bad (like the Lions) so you might see them go with a defensive talent like Robert Quinn (DE North Carolina), but I think that the Bengals will be blown up and forced to start over. Having Ochocinco, Owens, Shipley (really underrated), Benson, and Gresham at the skill positions is a very good thing for a young Quarterback.
3. Detroit Lions: Patrick Peterson, DB LSU. The Lions are not this bad and should have more wins than they do. With that being said, if there was an elite OL talent the Lions would go in that direction but I don't see that happening unless Anthony Castonzo has an insane combine and bowl game. However, I do see the Lions going defensive in the draft because their offense has been solid no matter who is at QB (Calvin Johnson = beast). I also predict the Lions getting help in the secondary because Deion Branch could still be running from that Thanksgiving day game (Alphonso Smith = eh, not so much). Patrick Peterson is one of the more versatile players in the draft and has boatloads of talent, size (6'1) and speed (4.3 ish 40). This freakish athlete can also make a difference on special teams and should make an impact right away.
4. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT/DE Alabama. What a beast. As a Charger fan, this pick scares the b'Jesus out of me because Dareus is a phenomenal athlete with a knack of being in the right place at the right time to make big plays on defense. He lives in the opponent's backfield in both running and passing situations. He is a perfect fit in the 3-4 as both the NT and a DE on passing downs. He will eat up blockers and allow Denver's quick linebackers to make plays in the running game and will allow Elvis Dumervil to once again reek havoc on passing downs. This is a grand slam talent and will make a huge difference in Denver's terrible defense front seven. I don't see anyone else being a better fit here but Denver could go with CB Prince Amukamara to pair with and eventually replace Champ Bailey.
   
5. Buffalo Bills: Jake Locker, QB Washington. Where do you begin with the Bills? There are so many holes to this team, but they play so damn hard. This is an example of a team that is not this good, but has somehow scratched out a few wins. The Bills are so bad that they can't even get the first overall pick with the worst team in the league. As someone who lives near a gaggle of Bills fans (yes they do exist) it makes for a lot of good joke cannon fodder. This is a little high for Locker as of now, but I do believe that the combine will treat Mr. Locker well. You can see one of the elite D lineman like Nick Fairley or Quinn (if availble) go here to help a terrible run defense. It all depends on the franchises view on Ryan Fitzpatrick. Everyone in fantasy football land overreacted to the three or four good games put in by Fitzpatrick and are paying for it by relying on a Buffalo Bill in any playoff situation (142 yards 1TD last week). Last year the Bills ignored their position of need and drafted C.J. Spiller (again, great joke cannon fodder). I don't see them doing that again.
6. Arizona Cardinals: Robert Quinn, DE North Carolina. Arizona really wanted one of the QB's to fall to them here, but with all three QB's gone they turn to rebuild a defense that was torn apart by free agency last year. Everything about the Cardinals defense is bad (30th against run and 25th against the pass) but there is potential. Quinn has character issues, but the combine will prove his value to be far superior than any other defensive lineman. He has the athleticism to both stop the run and rush the passer. You may also see the other elite cornerback in Prince Amukamara get taken here to go alongside Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and form one of the best pairs of shutdown corners in all of the NFL.
   
7. Dallas Cowboys: Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska. Dallas will be briefly happy to have had such a terrible season because Amukamara is such a supreme talent. You might be saying, 'I've never heard his name called this year?' or 'I thought Taylor Martinez is the reason Nebraska is so good?' While Taylor Martinez is a good college football talent, Amukamara is the only NFL stud on the Nebraska roster. The only reason why you haven't heard his name called this year is because opponents don't even look at the side he is covering. He reminds me of Nnamdi Asomugha of the Raiders because of his size (6'1) and ability to completely shut down the opposition's number one receiving threat. The cowboys would be lucky if Amukamara falls this far, but if he's here it makes perfect sense because the Cowboys will need to reassess their front seven scheme now that Wade Philips is gone.
   
8. Tennessee Titans: Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson. This is a classic case of best player available. This isn't a particular need for the Titans who are going through an identity crisis on both offense and defense. The impending divorce between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young will be entertaining and telling about where the Titans go in the future. However, no matter which direction the Titans choose, Bowers can flat out get after the QB, leading the FBS in sacks with 16 sacks. Only downside is that he is a one year wonder (pretty big red flag for me) hence he is a little lower on my board than most others. As evident by their interest in Randy Moss, the Titans may also go with WR wonder A.J. Green from Georgia, but I foresee Jeff Fisher still being the head head coach, which means that the Titans will refocus on running the football and playing good defense.
9. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR Georgia. Green fills a huge hole at WR for the Browns and their 27th ranked passing offense. Josh Cribbs is not an NFL grade WR, never has been, and never will be. The Browns need a legitimate threat at the WR position and Green gives them that. Green proved himself this year by averaging over 15 yards per reception and racking up 9 TDs in a season that he missed a few games due to suspension. Additionally, this will also allow Cribbs to focus on special teams a la Devin Hester. Another option for the Browns could be another OT to line up opposite Joe Thomas. Gabe Carimi fits the bill because he is massive and has the Wisconsin pedigree, but I think that WR is the way the Browns go here.
10. Minnesota Vikings: Nick Fairley, DE/DT Auburn. A lot of this depends on free agency, particularly whether or not Ray Edwards re-signs. Obviously, if Edwards does not re-sign, then the Vikings have to get another pass rushing threat that can also help in the run game. Fairley has been shooting up the draft boards in his recent performances for Auburn, especially in the games against Alabama and South Carolina where he totaled 8 total tackles and 3 sacks. The Vikings would have really liked one of the QB's to fall here and it is still a little early to draft Cam Newton, but I see that if the Vikings pick 10 or lower that they will look to trade back.
    
11. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR Alabama Jones fills a huge hole for the Redskins at WR. Santana Moss has never been a truly legitimate #1 WR and needs help. McNabb is a good QB but no one can throw to someone who is always double and triple covered. Jones will also bolster a lousy special teams unit in Washington (he has the hands to hold for extra points...SNAP!). Also look out for one of the OTs to go here so Shanahan can start building his zone blocking running game.
12. Houston Texans: Janoris Jenkins, CB Florida. Those who play fantasy football know that the Texans are a delicious matchup for WR and QB because their pass defense stinks. They give up just about two passing TDs a game. That is unacceptable. Jenkins makes plays in the coverage games. His fluid cover skills will test very highly in workouts/combine. He may not have the best size/speed combination but, once again, he makes plays.

Lock of the year: ne -3.5 @ cle

Week 7

Sorry for the absence but real life has recently been catching up to me. However, there are a couple of early lines that are quite intriguing and are worth a gander:

SF (-3) @ CAR: Last time I checked, the Panthers were terrible. At least the niners have talent, which is something the Panthers can not say. Look for this game to be low scoring because, lets face it, neither team can light the world on fire with its passing game, but look for the niners to pull away at the end of the game and win by 10. Take the points.

SEA (-6) vs. ARZ: If you need a sleeper fantasy defense/special teams, take a look at Seattle's Defense for the next two weeks. I'm not saying that they are incredible, but they have great matchups, and Max Hall is guaranteed at least one turnover this week and a couple of sacks. If you have any Cardinal offensive player try and trade them for anything at this point because this team is in a race with Buffalo to see who can get on the clock first. Seattle at home is a much better team than Seattle on the road and six points is a lot to give in the NFL, but Arizona is that bad. To see how bad I thought they'd be, reference my future picks from the preseason. Score one for me!

Survivor Pool Sunday

As we're getting more and more into Survivor pools, it's time to just make the safe pick and move on.  If you haven't taken Pittsburgh yet, this is the weekend to do so.  Big Ben back at home vs Cleveland who is starting a rookie QB.  If you can't take Pittsburgh then take the Giants at home vs Detroit.

Chicago bears are getting four points?! Against the giants?! Bet early and often

Love three games today. Bal (-11) against cle, det (+11) against min, and SD (-5 1/2) against sea.

Monday Night Football

A double dip tonight in the NFL and I have two words for the smart betters: Stay Away. The Chargers are notorious for being slow starters, and the Chiefs are just plain awful. This game could go any direction and I don't suggest betting any part of it. Same goes with the Jets/Ravens. Both the Ravens and Jets are doing lots of trash talking for a lot of stuff that was done ON PAPER. In reality, no one knows how Flacco will gel with his bevy of new receivers. Additionally, Sanchez was a terrible QB in the regular season last year. If the playoffs Sanchez shows up, then the Jets are in business. I don't believe that Sanchez will be moving the ball well against a motivated, talented, and prepared Ravens defense. If you had to bet on something for this game, take the under on visible, televised curse words coming from Rex Ryan's mouth.

Love the Alabama line. Penn state starting frosh qb IN ALABAMA.

Watch for the line in Washington vs Syracuse game. Like it if 14 and under. Love the first half line of -7

Loving lsu, Florida state and and the over in Michigan/nd

Pre-Flight Thoughts

1. Why is Tampa Bay giving points to anybody? Currently, Sheridan's line in the USA Today has TB giving three points to Cleveland (one of the hottest teams at the end of last year).

2. If you have Jerome Harrison on your fantasy team, start him.

3. Since when was Buffalo even close to as good as Miami? Miami is only giving three points on most betting lines. It is assumed that three points are awarded to the home team for home field advantage, so this means that Buffalo is only three points worse than Miami. Not even close. Buffalo could be one of the worst constructed teams in the NFL. I took Miami for survivor this week, lets put it that way...

4. Why is the average pilot's starting salary less than someone who works in a consumer electronics store?

5. Since when was wearing UGG boots and a miniskirt ok? Especially when it's neither raining, snowing, or night time at a club. That is just a load of bad decisions in one place.

6. ACC might have a big weekend on the betting lines. Like Miami and Florida State covering this weekend. Wait until the last minute to see the lines though..

7. Was not packing any shorts a bad idea for Vegas?

Vikings vs. Saints

Stay away from this game because it is too unpredictable given the injuries to the Minnesota offense, but it you HAVE to bet it take the under on the 49 1/2. Not because the Saints won't score, but the Vikings won't. When Favre is forced to throw all night (and he will be), he will throw interceptions. Additionally, take NO and give the six points. Sean Peyton has always been one of the best preparation coaches even going back to his days as the Offensive coordinator of the NY Giants. HERE WE GO EVERYONE.

Packing for flight to LV. Over/under is 2 for pre-flight freak outs.

NFL Survivor Weekend 1

It's the most wonderful time of the year. NFL week 1. The weekend that everyone still thinks they have a chance. I will be traveling to Vegas for the festivities and will keep you updated throughout the weekend. Believe it or not, this is not the best weekend to because there aren't many good spreads, but I will find the few for you to lock up a profit-filled weekend. Up first, survivor pool picks.

After perusing this week's slate of NFL games, there are only two survivor picks of any value to me. As you know, you want to pick a winner, but you also want to pick a winner you don't foresee picking again later in the year. Therefore, the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals pose good values this week. Arizona is a tricky team to figure out this year, but their best chance to have a definite win is week 1 at St. Louis. I do believe that St. Louis will be better than Arizona at the end of the year, but only have Sam Bradford has had more experience under center.

Miami plays at Buffalo who may be on the clock for the 2011 draft already. Not only is this game good for survivor, but Miami is only -3 according to bodog.com!! We'll get to the spreads later, but along with being the favorite, Miami (plus the rest of the AFC East) has a very difficult schedule so the Dolphins won't be a team that has a good matchup every week. Miami will have to play four tough division games along with having to play the AFC North, and they get Green Bay sprinkled in there too. This is one of the few games that I would even consider picking Miami in in a survivor situation, so why hold onto maybe later when I have right now. Take Miami.

NFL Futures NOW

It's time for the NFL season to start people! Even more importantly, it's time for the betting bonanza to begin. No matter what your bankroll may be, I have the secrets to maximizing both your fun level and money level. There are tons of people, places, and things to waste your money on, but football does not have to be one of them. Betting is not an exact science, but that's what makes it so sweet when you win. Overall, the best value bets are the NFL team prop bets. This is where Vegas thinks they know how many games everyone will win. Vegas has picked how many games each team will win within one game 80% of the time. That leaves 20% of the picks being good ones. The key is identifying the 20% and making the right call. Here are my top five team prop bets:

1. San Francisco 49ers (8 1/2). This is the most obvious of all of the over/unders. San Francisco is the one eyed king in the land of the blind that is the NFC west. The first team All American team in college can beat Rams twice. For the first time in a while, the AFC west will have some competition for the worst division in football, AND THOSE TWO DIVISIONS PLAY EACH OTHER THIS YEAR. Let me repeat that: THE NFC AND AFC WEST PLAY EACH OTHER THIS YEAR. This should be the breakout year for the young 49ers. Mike Singletary was one of the most intelligent and intense middle linebackers of all time (the quarterback of the defense), and he will be bring those same characteristics to this year's team. Not only does he have the best linebacker in football in Patrick Willis (kinda reminds me of a young Singletary), but the offense was coming around at the end of last year when Crabtree was finally getting his groove on. One of San Fran's main weaknesses on offense was the fact that Alex Smith's three set drop was 1-2-3-DUCK! So, like any good organization, San Fran drafted not one, but two first round offense lineman. Speaking of Alex Smith, all he has to Trent Dilfer it this year and San Fran will win at least 10 games. Finally, you know the niners have some mojo going when a saint of a running in Brian Westbrook replaces Glen Coffee, a promising second year running back, suddenly retired because he wanted to be a preacher. Talk about a good omen. I'm taking that omen all the way to a 10-6 season. Whenever my opinion varies by two or more, I bet it.

2. Detroit Lions (5). Even though the Lions are one of the biggest punch lines in sports, I am going to put money down on the over here. The Lions have drafted too early for too long to be this bad all the time. Ever since Matt Millen left, the Lions drafts have been stellar. Jim Schwartz is going to do wonders with this newly constructed defensive line with a stud in Suh and a solid pass rusher with Vanden Bosch. Even with those improvements on defense, I believe the most improved unit in football will be the Lions passing game. Calvin Johnson was a relatively tamed lion last year because he had absolutely zero help. This year, Jahvid Best will be in contention for offense rookie of the year and Matthew Stafford will make better in-game adjustments with a year of experience under his belt. I think that the Lions will go 8-8 and beat the Bears into the cellar. Take the Lions on the over.

3. Arizona (7 1/2). It may as well have been two decades since the Cardinals came one spectacular Santonio Holmes catch away from a Superbowl title because this year's team will be battling for the #1 pick in the draft. If you haven't heard, Derek Anderson is going to be the starting quarterback this year. Derek Anderson. The good news is that Anderson can win a game while only completing two passes (of course against the Bills). Bad news is that he is 15-18 in all of the other games he has started with a career passer rating of 69.7. Throw in the fact that they've lost most of their veteran leadership in Kurt Warner (retired), Anquan Boldin (Baltimore), Antrelle Rolle (New York Giants), and Karlos Dansby (Miami) gives you a recipe for disaster. Bottom line is that this is a team that is being led by quarterbacks that the head coach did not draft and a defense that was shaky at best last year and getting worse. Take the under.

4. Miami (8 1/2). This may come as a surprise to most, but the Miami Dolphins are going to win the AFC East. This is due to a combination of the Dolphins getting better and the Patriots getting worse. I know it's weird that I've written two sentences about the AFC East and didn't mention the Jets, but there are too many new pieces that need to be worked into that team. Don't get me wrong, I love the Jets to make the playoffs and do a lot of damage in the playoffs, but the regular season will belong to the Dolphins. With the addition of Karlos Dansby on defense, Tony Sporano finally has the playmaker he needs on defense to disrupt the basic offenses of teams like the Bills and Jets. Plus, the wildcat will get wilder with a legitimate deep threat in Brandon Marshall. For all of you fantasy owners out there, think about Davone Bess as a deep sleeper in your drafts. The only reason why the Dolphins traded Greg Camarillo to the Vikings was because of the development of Bess. This team has the sweet stench of the Big Tuna and you can order up 10 wins this season.

5. Green Bay (9 1/2). This is a pick that is fueled partially by the fact that they can get nearly half of the minimum nine wins in the four games they have with the Bears and Lions. Additionally, most of their difficult games are in the confines of Lambeau Field, which is still one of the best home field advantages. Furthermore, their most difficult road game (@min) comes after their bye week. The Packers will also benefit from the suddenly injury ridden passing attack of the Vikings. Does anyone not see the Packers as a playoff team? Does anyone see a 9-7 team making the playoffs in the NFC? I didn't think so. Put the Pack down for at least 10 wins, and could easily win 11.

WELCOME

Greetings and salutations from God of Sports. We are going to cover a myriad of topics here including fantasy sports and betting lines. I encourage everyone to email/facebook/tweet us with any questions/comments/concerns/etc. I promise that if you take the time to write something, I will take the time to read it. I may not be able to respond to everyone but I promise I will read it. I look forward to hearing from everyone and using my omnipotence to help everyone.