Friday, June 10, 2011

Fun with 4th Quarter Numbers.

LeBron James has totaled 11 points in the 4th quarter in this year's NBA finals. To put that in perspective, J.J. Barea and Jason Kidd both have 11 points as well in the same time frame. Dirk Novitzki? He has 52. Jason Terry with LeBron guarding him much of the 4th quarter? 26. Boston Celtics fans must be wondering how the LeBron they saw made every shot from everywhere at anytime. Chicago Bulls fans should be wondering why Derek Rose could not score on LeBron in the fourth quarter. Philadelphia 76ers fans are wondering if another A.I. will be traded away from their team (rumors show that the Clippers are interested in swapping Chris Kaman for Andre Iguodala). What everyone is wondering is, 'why?'

Fatigue. LeBron James has to chase Jason Terry all over the floor and, after 40+ minutes of that, is tired. James' high school basketball coach Keith Dambrot said, "If (James) doesn't have the legs, he will pass the ball." LeBron James is simply exhausted and does not get enough rest in the second halves of games. Coach Erik Spoelstra needs to take the decision out of LeBron's hands and take him out for 3-4 minutes during the second half. I'm no expert, but I know I saw Dirk Nowitzki sit out 3-4 minutes spanning from 2 minutes left in the third quarter and into the first minute of the fourth quarter (with the exception of 15 seconds for one offensive possession at the end of the third quarter). If LeBron doesn't have the legs to be both offensively and defensively late in the fourth quarter, get him some rest.

As I mentioned earlier, we could be witnessing the greatest statistical comeback in sports history. Statistically, since the NBA finals has gone to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, Dallas has gone from a 0% chance of winning to a 73.1% chance. Turning the tables does not even begin to describe what has happened in this year's finals. It's a good thing that these finals could have a lasting effect because there may not be one next year. Stay tuned for labor talks that will make the NFL labor talks seem like a grade-school playground tantrum.


  1. How did Dallas have a 0% chance of winning? There's no statistical anomaly here. Dallas and Miami split the first two, remember? Had Dallas lost the first two, then you'd be correct. Just to complete your thought, since the NBA went to a 2-3-2 format, 15 times a team has won the first two at home. Of those 15 times, only once has the loser of those first two come back to win the series (a 6.67% chance vs. 0% btw). Ironically, it was Miami over Dallas in 2006.

  2. If you read the entire article, it stated that the winner of game three after the series is tied at 1 a piece has won every time (10 out of 10). Now, Dallas has a 73.1% chance of winning because of its game 5 victory after the series was tied at 2 a piece. Love the coincidental stat about 2006 though. Good stuff!

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