Thursday, October 20, 2011

What I Think I Know: NFL Week 7

Last Week we got back on track picking a whole bunch of winners, ultimately going 3-1 with three correct eliminator picks, bringing our season record to 11-9.  Apparently, betting on the Bills or the Panthers is really difficult.  We'll stay away from the Bills this week because they're on a bye, but I'm gonna hop right back on the Panthers bandwagon this week.

Eliminator Picks: Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Carolina Panthers (if you're desperate).

Even Though I Did Not Draw This, This is What My Artwork Looks Like

Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Washington Redskins: Got burned by Carolina last week, but they will bounce back against a Redskins team that got exposed last week against Philadelphia.  Plus, Washington is switching quarterbacks from "Sexy Rexy" Grossman to John Beck.  It won't be pretty but Carolina should pull out a squeaker against the 'Skins.  Final Score: Carolina 25, Washington 20

St. Louis Rams (+13) @ Dallas Cowboys: St. Louis is not going to win this game, but I don't trust the Cowboys to beat anyone by 13 points, and especially not when they will be turning to backup running backs Tashard Choice and DeMarco Murray behind what has been a shaky offensive line.  Give me the Rams, who will rejuvenate their season in the second half, and the points.  Final Score: Dallas 27, St. Louis 17

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Unlike the Cowboys, the Ravens have the pieces to demolish teams, particularly on defense.  I wouldn't be surprised if the Baltimore defense outscores the Jacksonville offense by themselves.  Blaine Gabbert will get many "welcome to the NFL" moments brought to him by Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and the rest of the mean Baltimore D.  Unfortunately, there will be no other games to turn to during this debacle on Monday night so have a backup plan for the night if you would like to watch something interesting (perhaps Big Bang Theory).  Final Score: Baltimore 26, Jacksonville 9

Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) @ Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb has not shown me enough to believe that he can beat a veteran defense like the Steelers.  Pittsburgh will not beat themselves in this game turning the ball over, and wide receiver Mike Wallace is going to abuse Cardinals rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson all day for multiple big plays.  I'll give the four points and take the Steelers continuing to show that they are not "too old."  Final Score: Pittsburgh 30, Arizona 17

Thursday, October 13, 2011

What I Think I Know: NFL Week 6

As Vince Lombardi famously said, "what the hell is goin' on out there?"  1-3 last week and my eliminator pick (Giants) spit the bit.  That is no good like Scott Norwood.  It is unacceptable and, like Mike Vick, I take full responsibility for my 8-8 record for the season so far.  However, if you listened to NostraDovus, you went 1-0-1 last week and 1-2-1 for the season (he had his up-to-date Mayan calendars).  There are some unbelievable lines this weekend begging to be taken advantage of.  Here we go.

Eliminator Pick: Green Bay Packers (+15 1/2) vs. St Louis Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers (+13) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, or Cincinnati Bengals (+7) vs. Indiannapolis Colts.  Although the Giants inexplicably lost to the Seahawks last week, if  you are still in any survivor/eliminator pool, those three are the biggest spreads of the weekend, and you should go with one of them, if you can.


Dallas Cowboys (+7) @ New England Patriots: I'm not saying the the Cowboys are going to win, so don't go all-in with the Cowboys, but (like the cheerleaders) have a nice spread.  Dallas is coming off of a bye where Romo got to rest his ribs/lungs and the rest of the team had the chance to get one week healthier.  This just in, the Patriots are really bad on defense.  This game has the potential to be a shootout, which is a bad way to try and beat the Patriots, but it is a good strategy to stay within 7 points.  Final Score: Dallas 30, New England 35

Indianapolis Colts (+7) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Once again, I do not expect the Colts to win (even though it would surprise me), but Cincinnati does not have an offense that will blow anyone out.  Additionally, Colts quarterback Curtis Painter (and his golden lochs) has improved every week and has really developed a nice chemistry with receiver Pierre Garcon.  Final Score: Indiannapolis 16, Cincinnati 17

Carolina Panthers (+4) @ Atlanta Falcons: I'm not giving more than three points to the Panthers as long as Cam Newton is their starter.  Newton has the ability to keep any game close (even against the Saints last week), and last week was the last time I will get burned by it.  I am going to call for the upset here because Atlanta has zero identity on offense and Carolina knows exactly what they are trying to do.  Final Score: Carolina 26, Atlanta 24

Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings: I think Vegas is overreacting to Minnesota's dominating performance last week against the Buccaneers.  Chicago, even on the short week, will not let its defense to be embarrassed again by long, gashing runs like it did against Lions running back Jahvid Best.  Furthermore, Jay Cutler had his best performance of the year last week and will build on it against a lackluster Vikings pass defense.  Final Score: Chicago 24, Minnesota 17

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

NBA Players Need to Learn From NHL Lockout, Not NFL

If the NBA players and their leader Billy Hunter want to strike a deal and save their season, they should take their cues from the NHL lockout and its lost 2004-2005 season.  In fact, six of the NBA owners were a part of the NHL lockout.  If the players think that the owners will give into their demands, they are crazy.  According to ESPN's Ric Bucher, those group of six owners are telling the other NBA owners that the NHL's lost season was great for them in terms of getting what they wanted in the new collective bargaining agreement.  Billionaires do not become billionaires by making bad deals.  In the NHL's case, the players got far less in the new collective bargaining deal because they decided to sit out a season, and this will happen to the NBA players as well if they sit around too long.

In the old collective bargaining agreement, the NBA players took a 57% cut from all "basketball related revenues," and will not settle for anything less than 53% in any new deal (even though there was a 50-50 split on the table from the owners).  There's one problem with this theory: the owners can afford to not play basketball, the players can not.  If players decide to play in other countries, they will soon find out that everything is different (for the worse) compared to their cushy NBA lives.  Furthermore, some owners would lose less by not playing this season.  How many is still a mystery and until the teams reveal all of their financial data, I will not believe any number of teams commissioner David Stern says are in the red.  In negotiations, at the end of the day, it all boils down to what one can and can't do.  Nothing else.

To prove this point, there are already rumors that the owners will not accept any deal unless they get at least 53% of all basketball-related revenues.  The gap between the players and the owners is widening, and unless the players cave to that 50-50 split quickly, the season will be lost because the owners can, and will, sit out and the players will have to come back to the negotiation table with their collective tails in between their legs.

Friday, October 7, 2011

What I Think I Know: NFL Week 5

Even Steven
Another average week last week but we are still 7-5 for the season and 4-0 on eliminator picks.  Lets not flirt with the Even Steven line and head towards what we all seek: profit.

NostraDovus Picks of the Week:

New York Jets (+9) @ New England Patriots
Detroit Lions (-6) vs. Chicago Bears

The Dovus has realigned his Mayan calendars and has bet against the Patriots again!  Many things he is not, but persistent he is.  However, the stars are officially aligning for the Lions now.  Both games will be wildly entertaining and I have to agree on both picks.  However, I'm not betting on either...division games are always so tricky.  Here are the games worth betting on.

You Can Bet On It

Eliminator Pick: New York Giants.  The Gmen get the Seattle Seachickens at home and have the largest point spread of the weekend (10 1/2).  Rumor has it that Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora will start, but even if the Giants only have one of them, it will be enough to make Seattle QB Tavaris Jackson worry himself into a couple of turnovers.  A backup pick would be the San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans, and New Orleans Saints if you haven't used them already.

San Diego Chargers (-4) @ Denver Broncos: I know this is a division game, and those can always be tricky, but this line does not reflect the "eye test." When I watch these two teams play, the Chargers look infinitely better than the Broncos, and it's not the Broncos fault.  Denver fans will be calling for a third string QB to come in and continue to deflate the first string team that is on the field.  Willis McGahee has been a nice surprise for the Broncos, but the Chargers have been monsters against the run this year not allowing a 100 yard rusher yet.  The Chargers are starting a three game road swing that needs to get started off on the right foot.  Take the Bolts and give the points.  Final Score: San Diego 27, Denver 16.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Buffalo Bills: The Bills have burned me every week, I gotta get one of these right.  The Eagles are having a San Diego Chargers-esque start to the season (1-3 but supremely talented), but the clock has struck October and the real Eagles will stand up.  Look for the Eagles to pile on the offense in the first half and hold on for dear life in the second half with one defensive stop to end the game.  Final Score: Philadelphia 34, Buffalo 30.

Houston Texans (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders: The Raiders defense got exposed against the Patriots, and the Texans can take advantage of the Raiders fly-by-night style.  Look for running back Arian Foster to have a HUGE day leading the Texans.  Oakland is going to get worn down by the Texans running game early and will run out of gas late from constantly being on the field.  Final Score: Houston 29, Oakland 20.

New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Carolina Panthers: Carolina is better than expected, but so are the Saints.  Darren Sproles has injected what Reggie Bush was supposed to inject into the Saints offense.  Look for the Panthers tight ends to continue to catch a ton of passes with the Saints cover 2 shell, but Saints linebacker Jonathan Vilma has the speed to spy Carolina's rookie-of-the-year quarterback Cam Newton to "limit" him enough to cover the spread.  Final Score: New Orleans 38, Carolina 30.