Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Mock Draft Monday 5/21 Results and Analysis


RoundErik Siegrist@MikeSGallagherReality Sports OnlinePsycho dadMastersball.com-Ryan.CareyFantasy Sports MasteryThe Sherpa
R1 »Ray RiceArian FosterLeSean McCoyMaurice Jones-DrewCalvin JohnsonAaron RodgersMatt Forte
R2 «Adrian PetersonMike WallaceHakeem NicksVictor CruzDarren McFaddenA.J. GreenRoddy White
R3 »Demaryius ThomasJamaal CharlesFrank GoreJordy NelsonTrent RichardsonDwayne BoweDeMarco Murray
R4 «Darren SprolesPeyton ManningDeSean JacksonJulio JonesJeremy MaclinBenJarvus Green-EllisBrandon Lloyd
R5 »Antonio BrownKenny BrittReggie WayneRoy HeluPhilip RiversVernon DavisShonn Greene
R6 «Matt SchaubDoug MartinMark IngramTim TebowMichael CrabtreeEric DeckerJermichael Finley
R7 »Fred DavisMatt RyanSantonio HolmesLaurent RobinsonDaniel ThomasStevan RidleyTorrey Smith
R8 «Darrius Heyward-BeyRobert MeachemJames StarksMalcom FloydDenarius MooreKnowshon MorenoJay Cutler
R9 »Toby GerhartBrandon PettigrewBrent CelekMikel LeshoureGreg LittleRandy MossAndrew Luck
R10 «Doug BaldwinRonnie HillmanJoe FlaccoChris IvoryOwen DanielsNate WashingtonPierre Thomas
R11 »Coby FleenerBrandon LaFellSteve BreastonKendall HunterDelone CarterJoel DreessenMontario Hardesty
R12 «James JonesDavid WilsonDexter McClusterJason SnellingAndy DaltonMatt CasselJonathan Baldwin
R13 »Alex SmithDanny AmendolaBernard ScottHeath MillerSan Francisco 49ersChris RaineyTitus Young
R14 «Mason CrosbyBaltimore RavensSeattle SeahawksRob BironasRandall CobbNew York JetsNew England Patriots
R15 »Dallas CowboysMatt PraterBilly CundiffOakland RaidersMatt BryantRobbie GouldJason Hanson

more must be betterColin Cowherd SUCKSxfactorGametimekbross - Fantasy Football PoolsBald man seeking vengeanceMike Gottlieb: RotoWire Social Media AdminRound
Drew BreesCam NewtonTom BradyChris JohnsonRyan MathewsAndre JohnsonMarshawn Lynch» R1
Michael VickGreg JenningsJimmy GrahamMatthew StaffordLarry FitzgeraldRob GronkowskiWes Welker« R2
Steven JacksonVincent JacksonPercy HarvinBrandon MarshallMiles AustinMarques ColstonMichael Turner» R3
Dez BryantAntonio GatesReggie BushSteve SmithTony RomoAhmad BradshawFred Jackson« R4
Chris WellsEli ManningWillis McGaheeIsaac RedmanSteve JohnsonJonathan StewartDeAngelo Williams» R5
Michael BushBen RoethlisbergerPierre GarconAaron HernandezJason WittenLeGarrette BlountPeyton Hillis« R6
Cedric BensonC.J. SpillerJustin BlackmonTony GonzalezRobert GriffinSidney RiceBen Tate» R7
Jahvid BestSantana MossVincent BrownAnquan BoldinDonald BrownMike WilliamsMario Manningham« R8
Maurice MorrisRyan FitzpatrickMike TolbertKevin SmithBrandon JacobsFelix JonesJosh Freeman» R9
Rashard MendenhallCarson PalmerJake LockerJoe McKnightJermaine GreshamLance MooreMichael Floyd« R10
Plaxico BurressDamian WilliamsRyan GrantShane VereenMarion BarberEarl BennettJacob Tamme» R11
Golden TateDavid NelsonLance BallDeion BranchJackie BattleTim HightowerKevin Kolb« R12
Jake BallardJoseph AddaiJabar GaffneyChris OgbonnayaKahlil BellRex GrossmanJacoby Ford» R13
Neil RackersJosh BrownDavid AkersAlex HenerySebastian JanikowskiStephen GostkowskiPittsburgh Steelers« R14
San Diego ChargersTennessee TitansWashington RedskinsSt. Louis RamsTampa Bay BuccaneersHouston TexansJohn Kasay» R15
Mock Draft Monday Results And Analysis: 5/21/12 edition
o No One Dared to Take a TE in the First Round: Even though it was a 14-team draft, no one took the plunge into drafting Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham in the first round. As the fantasy football season nears, I am intrigued by how early the first two tight ends go off the board. How many people will treat them like #1 or 2 WR options with TE eligibility?
o Fantasy Running Back by Committee: BREAKING NEWS: THE RUNNING BACK POOL IS VERY SHALLOW. Seriously though, it is. Even though I have said multiple times that I don’t trust many of the running backs after the first four (Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and Maurice Jones-Drew), I loaded up on running backs in the early parts of the draft (6 of my first 7 picks).
o …If You Think I’m Crazy… Think again. Well, at least this time. Overall, 70 running backs were taken in this draft, which had 210 total picks. Luckily for me, it was easy to calculate that one out of every three picks throughout the draft was a running back. How is this possible? The maximum amount of running back starters in most leagues is three (2 starters and a flex). Why would the average roster carry five running backs when it could get away with having three (2 starters and 1 bye week fill-in while utilizing the flex spot with either WR or TE)? Simple, because [expletive deleted] happens. When the average roster has five running backs on it, suddenly drafting six in the first seven rounds doesn’t seem too crazy. In a pretty barren running back market, I tried to give myself the best chance of having 3 legitimate running back options every week. In the end, that’s all you can do, right?
o Will Robert Griffin III be This Year’s Cam Newton? If you think so, do you draft him as your first QB so you can use your earlier round picks on skill players? If you want him as your first QB, how early do you take him? This is another topic that will peak my interest as we get closer to the fantasy football season.
o Value by Position: The way I calculate value by position is by looking at how long it takes to get to a player that scored 100 points fewer than the top performing player at each position. The way I see it, 100 points over an entire season is hard to make up at other positions (a little over a TD/game over a 16-game fantasy season). Here are the results using ESPN Standard League scoring from last season:
o QB: 5 (#1 Aaron Rodgers: 385 #6 Eli Manning: 273)
o RB: 6 (#1 Ray Rice: 283 #7 Adrian Peterson: 181)
o WR: 10 (#1 Calvin Johnson: 254 #11 Marques Colston/Hakeem Nicks: 154)
o TE: 2 (#1 Rob Gronkowski: 233 #3 Aaron Hernandez: 127)
o K: 30 (#1 David Akers: 182 #31 Josh Brown: 82)
o D/ST: 28 (#1 49ers: 169 #29 Raiders 67)
o What Does it Mean? Tight end is the most valuable position and Rob Gronkowski was the MVP last year. Moving forward, it all goes back to my first point that nobody took a TE in the first round of the draft. However, will that continue?

Monday, May 14, 2012

Mock Draft Monday Results/Notes: 5-14


RoundMichael Rathburn - Daily Joustkbross - Fantasy Football Poolskilling timeJefferson Darcykneel before zod!
R1 ?Arian FosterLeSean McCoyRay RiceMaurice Jones-DrewCalvin Johnson
R2 ?A.J. GreenMatthew StaffordRob GronkowskiWes WelkerMarshawn Lynch
R3 ?DeMarco MurrayAdrian PetersonJimmy GrahamGreg JenningsMichael Vick
R4 ?Mike WallaceDwayne BoweMiles AustinPercy HarvinVincent Jackson
R5 ?Demaryius ThomasJeremy MaclinMarques ColstonMichael TurnerAhmad Bradshaw
R6 ?Steve JohnsonJermichael FinleyEli ManningDarren SprolesChris Wells
R7 ?Peyton ManningDarrius Heyward-BeyWillis McGaheeAntonio BrownPhilip Rivers
R8 ?Mark IngramVernon DavisTim TebowAaron HernandezJason Witten
R9 ?Robert GriffinC.J. SpillerMichael CrabtreeShonn GreeneLaurent Robinson
R10 ?Jacob TammeNate WashingtonMatt SchaubBen TateSidney Rice
R11 ?Stevan RidleyRobert MeachemMario ManninghamMike WilliamsDonald Brown
R12 ?Denarius MooreMichael FloydBrent CelekMaurice MorrisJahvid Best
R13 ?Jared CookJames StarksMatt RyanRyan FitzpatrickGreg Little
R14 ?Baltimore RavensGreen Bay PackersJosh BrownDavid AkersAlex Henery
R15 ?Mason CrosbyRobbie GouldNew York GiantsNew York JetsPhiladelphia Eagles

bruteFORCELuke HooverexlaxCraig Macchi - GridironGod.comMike Gottlieb: RotoWire Social Media AdminRound
Aaron RodgersTom BradyMatt ForteDrew BreesRyan Mathews? R1
Chris JohnsonTrent RichardsonCam NewtonLarry FitzgeraldAndre Johnson? R2
Victor CruzJordy NelsonHakeem NicksSteven JacksonJamaal Charles? R3
Frank GoreFred JacksonRoddy WhiteDarren McFaddenBrandon Marshall? R4
Tony RomoJulio JonesSteve SmithDeSean JacksonDez Bryant? R5
Roy HeluKenny BrittReggie BushAntonio GatesBrandon Lloyd? R6
Isaac RedmanDoug MartinJonathan StewartPierre GarconBen Roethlisberger? R7
LeGarrette BlountPeyton HillisDeAngelo WilliamsSan Francisco 49ersMichael Bush? R8
Cedric BensonJustin BlackmonReggie WayneBenJarvus Green-EllisJay Cutler? R9
Tony GonzalezEric DeckerSantonio HolmesTorrey SmithMalcom Floyd? R10
Anquan BoldinMikel LeshoureDaniel ThomasAndrew LuckRandy Moss? R11
Santana MossFred DavisVincent BrownTE PlaceholderJermaine Gresham? R12
Mike TolbertAlex GreenOwen DanielsDevin HesterPittsburgh Steelers? R13
Sebastian JanikowskiHouston TexansStephen GostkowskiKevin SmithToby Gerhart? R14
Detroit LionsMatt PraterDallas CowboysNeil RackersNate Kaeding? R15
Mock Draft Monday Notes: 5/14


10-Team Standard Flex


§  Wide Receiver Pool is Crazy Deep: I know that this was only a 10-team league, but there are great values to be had at the wide receiver position, so do not feel bad if you do not snag Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Wes Welker early.  For example, Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem were drafted in the 10th and 11th round respectively and will be competing to be Philip Rivers' #1 receiver in San Diego's traditionally high-powered offense.  Sure, they won't put up the same numbers as Megatron, but the difference in fantasy points will not be enough to discredit the value of getting a player like Meachem or Floyd approximately 100 picks later than one of the top wide receivers.  Speaking fo Floyds, Michael Floyd in Arizona is my sleeper this year.  The major knock on him coming out of Notre Dame was his route-running ability, but now he gets to learn from Larry Fitzgerald.  Problem solved.


§  …So is the Tight End Pool: Yes, Gronkowski and Graham separated themselves last year from other tight ends and had solid #2/low-end #1 wide receiver value, but there are viable substitutes if you do not get one of the top two TEs in the early rounds.  Aaron Hernandez is a good value four or five rounds later.  Plus, do not sleep on Coby Fleener's value in Indy, (known as TE Placeholder in this draft) especially in PPR formats.  Tight ends and running backs are rookie QBs best friends and Fleener and Andrew Luck already had a strong chemistry at Stanford before arriving at Indy together.


§  Don't Reach to Get a QB Early: Would I have taken Drew Brees with the 10th overall pick?  Probably.  However, Macchi got him first at #9.  That left me staring at Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford's names as the next highest rated quarterbacks.  As tempting as it was to take Killer Cam, I chose to test the QB depth and was hoping for Philip Rivers in the sixth round, but had to settle for Roethlisberger when Kneel Before Zod! (great team name) took Rivers five picks before me.  Plus, I was able to nab Jay Cutler two rounds later to fill out what is a solid, but not spectacular QB tandem. 


§  Trent Richardson is the Most Volatile Draft Pick: Richardson went #14 overall to Luke Hoover who obviously believes in the rookie RB in Cleveland.  Will he have the opportunity to be a top-10 running back this season?  Yes.  However, he has an absolutely brutal schedule (good defenses in their divison plus games against the NFC East and vastly improved AFC West) and supporting cast.  This is what NFL.com says about the Browns 2012 schedule: "[The Browns] likely will be underdogs in every game they play against much more talented teams except for these two: an away tilt at Indianapolis in October, where Andrew Luck might have his sea legs under him; and a home game against the Redskins in mid-December."  Robert Griffin III may also have his sea legs under him in mid-December, as well.  Overall, Richardson is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick.


§ 
 

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Initial Fantasy Football ADP Reactions

Yes, I know it's fantasy baseball season (how quickly has the first 20% of the season gone, by the way).  However, here are some things I've noticed about the latest (ADP) report from Mock Draft Central:

 

§  Matt Forte is being drafted way too high (7.59): I am aware that Matt Forte was arguably the best fantasy player last season until his injury, but remember he did get injured.  Additionally, the Bears have added Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall who will take away touches, especially in the end zone.  Don't get me wrong that Forte is still a great player and deserves to be the fifth running back off the board behind Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Jones-Drew, but at 7th overall has a high bust potential.

§  Cam Newton should not be drafted before Tom Brady (9.38 v. 10.08): Unless you are starting a keeper league or are in a keeper league where Newton and Brady are available in the draft, this should never happen.  Yes, Newton dazzled everyone last season and proved all his doubters wrong, but that does not mean that he is all of a sudden a better fantasy option than Tom Brady.  The Patriots have had an EXCELLENT offseason improving their defense while adding Brandon Lloyd to the mix offensively.  Lloyd, who flourished under coach Josh McDaniels in Denver when Kyle Orton was at the helm, is reunited with his old coach with the quarterback, under McDaniels' system, threw 50 TDs.

§  The running back position gets ugly, quickly: After the first four running backs (who are being drafted 1.18 - 4.38 so if you're in the latter part of the first round good luck getting one), there is not a tremendous amount of value at the running back position.  It would behoove the players with picks 5 and later to address the other skill positions first.  Are you going to trust that Ryan Mathews (11.67) will be one of your two best performing players?  How about Chris Johnson (11.28)?  Marshawn Lynch (14.49)?  The bust potential is just way too high.  Go with safer options like Wes Welker (15.72), Rob Gronkowski (16.49), and Jimmy Graham (19.74) and wait for guys like Fred Jackson (40.03), Ahmad Bradshaw (41.00), and Michael Turner (37.97) later

§  Tim Tebow is massively overrated (74.28): Only if Tebow gains RB eligibility does he warrant a top-100 ranking (which speaks volumes about is QB ability).  This is coming from a guy who rolled with Tebow for a good portion of last season, but that was when he was the STARTING quarterback.  If you are going to bet on a player getting starter production, but is listed as a backup to start the year, go with Ben Tate (90.69) who has proven that he was a fantasy factor whether Arian Foster was in the lineup or not.

§  The Carolina Panthers RB situation is #1 on my O.P.P (Other People's Problem) list: Jonathan Stewart (63.15) and DeAngelo Williams (64.46) would be great values at those spots if they didn't have to compete against each other, Cam Newton (9.38), AND Mike Tolbert (117.62) for goal line carries.  There is no bigger logjam in the NFL than the RB depth chart in Carolina.

§  Vincent Jackson is not that good (32.49): This may be the Chargers in me talking, but Vincent Jackson is not worth late-third or early-fourth-round pick.  I'd take Brandon Marshall (33.74), Mike Wallace and his contract situation (36.90), or Dez Bryant (46.62) before Jackson (even if he was still on the Chargers).

§  Malcom Floyd on the other hand…(102.82) is a much better value: Quick, who led the NFL in yards/reception at a staggering clip of 19.9…that would be Malcom Floyd.  If you project his 856 receiving yards in 12 games to a 16 game season, he would have had 1,070.  Not bad, right?  With that being said, Vincent Jackson was no slouch finishing 6th in yards per reception and over 1,100 yards receiving, but I do not have the same confidence in Jackson's new QB Josh Freeman (who will be learning a new system under new head coach Greg Schiano) as I do in his old QB Philip Rivers.  Also, in what world should Vincent Brown (98.69) be drafted before Floyd?

§  Peyton Hillis (65.72) should NOT be above Michael Bush (72.67): I understand that Hillis' 22" pythons are mesmerizing, but lets get real: Michael Bush will finish the year with more TDs than Hillis.  Both RBs, barring injuries to incumbent starters ahead of them on their respective teams, will primarily be TD vultures and should be valued in terms of TDs first and yards second.