Mock Draft Monday 5/21 Results and Analysis

Round	Erik Siegrist	@MikeSGallagher	Reality Sports Online	Psycho dad	Mastersball.com-Ryan.Carey	Fantasy Sports Mastery	The Sherpa
R1 »	Ray Rice	Arian Foster	LeSean McCoy	Maurice Jones-Drew	Calvin Johnson	Aaron Rodgers	Matt Forte
R2 «	Adrian Peterson	Mike Wallace	Hakeem Nicks	Victor Cruz	Darren McFadden	A.J. Green	Roddy White
R3 »	Demaryius Thomas	Jamaal Charles	Frank Gore	Jordy Nelson	Trent Richardson	Dwayne Bowe	DeMarco Murray
R4 «	Darren Sproles	Peyton Manning	DeSean Jackson	Julio Jones	Jeremy Maclin	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Brandon Lloyd
R5 »	Antonio Brown	Kenny Britt	Reggie Wayne	Roy Helu	Philip Rivers	Vernon Davis	Shonn Greene
R6 «	Matt Schaub	Doug Martin	Mark Ingram	Tim Tebow	Michael Crabtree	Eric Decker	Jermichael Finley
R7 »	Fred Davis	Matt Ryan	Santonio Holmes	Laurent Robinson	Daniel Thomas	Stevan Ridley	Torrey Smith
R8 «	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Robert Meachem	James Starks	Malcom Floyd	Denarius Moore	Knowshon Moreno	Jay Cutler
R9 »	Toby Gerhart	Brandon Pettigrew	Brent Celek	Mikel Leshoure	Greg Little	Randy Moss	Andrew Luck
R10 «	Doug Baldwin	Ronnie Hillman	Joe Flacco	Chris Ivory	Owen Daniels	Nate Washington	Pierre Thomas
R11 »	Coby Fleener	Brandon LaFell	Steve Breaston	Kendall Hunter	Delone Carter	Joel Dreessen	Montario Hardesty
R12 «	James Jones	David Wilson	Dexter McCluster	Jason Snelling	Andy Dalton	Matt Cassel	Jonathan Baldwin
R13 »	Alex Smith	Danny Amendola	Bernard Scott	Heath Miller	San Francisco 49ers	Chris Rainey	Titus Young
R14 «	Mason Crosby	Baltimore Ravens	Seattle Seahawks	Rob Bironas	Randall Cobb	New York Jets	New England Patriots
R15 »	Dallas Cowboys	Matt Prater	Billy Cundiff	Oakland Raiders	Matt Bryant	Robbie Gould	Jason Hanson

more must be better	Colin Cowherd SUCKS	xfactor	Gametime	kbross - Fantasy Football Pools	Bald man seeking vengeance	Mike Gottlieb: RotoWire Social Media Admin	Round
Drew Brees	Cam Newton	Tom Brady	Chris Johnson	Ryan Mathews	Andre Johnson	Marshawn Lynch	» R1
Michael Vick	Greg Jennings	Jimmy Graham	Matthew Stafford	Larry Fitzgerald	Rob Gronkowski	Wes Welker	« R2
Steven Jackson	Vincent Jackson	Percy Harvin	Brandon Marshall	Miles Austin	Marques Colston	Michael Turner	» R3
Dez Bryant	Antonio Gates	Reggie Bush	Steve Smith	Tony Romo	Ahmad Bradshaw	Fred Jackson	« R4
Chris Wells	Eli Manning	Willis McGahee	Isaac Redman	Steve Johnson	Jonathan Stewart	DeAngelo Williams	» R5
Michael Bush	Ben Roethlisberger	Pierre Garcon	Aaron Hernandez	Jason Witten	LeGarrette Blount	Peyton Hillis	« R6
Cedric Benson	C.J. Spiller	Justin Blackmon	Tony Gonzalez	Robert Griffin	Sidney Rice	Ben Tate	» R7
Jahvid Best	Santana Moss	Vincent Brown	Anquan Boldin	Donald Brown	Mike Williams	Mario Manningham	« R8
Maurice Morris	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Mike Tolbert	Kevin Smith	Brandon Jacobs	Felix Jones	Josh Freeman	» R9
Rashard Mendenhall	Carson Palmer	Jake Locker	Joe McKnight	Jermaine Gresham	Lance Moore	Michael Floyd	« R10
Plaxico Burress	Damian Williams	Ryan Grant	Shane Vereen	Marion Barber	Earl Bennett	Jacob Tamme	» R11
Golden Tate	David Nelson	Lance Ball	Deion Branch	Jackie Battle	Tim Hightower	Kevin Kolb	« R12
Jake Ballard	Joseph Addai	Jabar Gaffney	Chris Ogbonnaya	Kahlil Bell	Rex Grossman	Jacoby Ford	» R13
Neil Rackers	Josh Brown	David Akers	Alex Henery	Sebastian Janikowski	Stephen Gostkowski	Pittsburgh Steelers	« R14
San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Houston Texans	John Kasay	» R15

Mock Draft Monday Results And Analysis: 5/21/12 edition

o No One Dared to Take a TE in the First Round: Even though it was a 14-team draft, no one took the plunge into drafting Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham in the first round. As the fantasy football season nears, I am intrigued by how early the first two tight ends go off the board. How many people will treat them like #1 or 2 WR options with TE eligibility?
o Fantasy Running Back by Committee: BREAKING NEWS: THE RUNNING BACK POOL IS VERY SHALLOW. Seriously though, it is. Even though I have said multiple times that I don’t trust many of the running backs after the first four (Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, and Maurice Jones-Drew), I loaded up on running backs in the early parts of the draft (6 of my first 7 picks).
o …If You Think I’m Crazy… Think again. Well, at least this time. Overall, 70 running backs were taken in this draft, which had 210 total picks. Luckily for me, it was easy to calculate that one out of every three picks throughout the draft was a running back. How is this possible? The maximum amount of running back starters in most leagues is three (2 starters and a flex). Why would the average roster carry five running backs when it could get away with having three (2 starters and 1 bye week fill-in while utilizing the flex spot with either WR or TE)? Simple, because [expletive deleted] happens. When the average roster has five running backs on it, suddenly drafting six in the first seven rounds doesn’t seem too crazy. In a pretty barren running back market, I tried to give myself the best chance of having 3 legitimate running back options every week. In the end, that’s all you can do, right?
o Will Robert Griffin III be This Year’s Cam Newton? If you think so, do you draft him as your first QB so you can use your earlier round picks on skill players? If you want him as your first QB, how early do you take him? This is another topic that will peak my interest as we get closer to the fantasy football season.
o Value by Position: The way I calculate value by position is by looking at how long it takes to get to a player that scored 100 points fewer than the top performing player at each position. The way I see it, 100 points over an entire season is hard to make up at other positions (a little over a TD/game over a 16-game fantasy season). Here are the results using ESPN Standard League scoring from last season:
o QB: 5 (#1 Aaron Rodgers: 385 #6 Eli Manning: 273)
o RB: 6 (#1 Ray Rice: 283 #7 Adrian Peterson: 181)
o WR: 10 (#1 Calvin Johnson: 254 #11 Marques Colston/Hakeem Nicks: 154)
o TE: 2 (#1 Rob Gronkowski: 233 #3 Aaron Hernandez: 127)
o K: 30 (#1 David Akers: 182 #31 Josh Brown: 82)
o D/ST: 28 (#1 49ers: 169 #29 Raiders 67)
o What Does it Mean? Tight end is the most valuable position and Rob Gronkowski was the MVP last year. Moving forward, it all goes back to my first point that nobody took a TE in the first round of the draft. However, will that continue?

Mock Draft Monday Results/Notes: 5-14

Round	Michael Rathburn - Daily Joust	kbross - Fantasy Football Pools	killing time	Jefferson Darcy	kneel before zod!
R1 ?	Arian Foster	LeSean McCoy	Ray Rice	Maurice Jones-Drew	Calvin Johnson
R2 ?	A.J. Green	Matthew Stafford	Rob Gronkowski	Wes Welker	Marshawn Lynch
R3 ?	DeMarco Murray	Adrian Peterson	Jimmy Graham	Greg Jennings	Michael Vick
R4 ?	Mike Wallace	Dwayne Bowe	Miles Austin	Percy Harvin	Vincent Jackson
R5 ?	Demaryius Thomas	Jeremy Maclin	Marques Colston	Michael Turner	Ahmad Bradshaw
R6 ?	Steve Johnson	Jermichael Finley	Eli Manning	Darren Sproles	Chris Wells
R7 ?	Peyton Manning	Darrius Heyward-Bey	Willis McGahee	Antonio Brown	Philip Rivers
R8 ?	Mark Ingram	Vernon Davis	Tim Tebow	Aaron Hernandez	Jason Witten
R9 ?	Robert Griffin	C.J. Spiller	Michael Crabtree	Shonn Greene	Laurent Robinson
R10 ?	Jacob Tamme	Nate Washington	Matt Schaub	Ben Tate	Sidney Rice
R11 ?	Stevan Ridley	Robert Meachem	Mario Manningham	Mike Williams	Donald Brown
R12 ?	Denarius Moore	Michael Floyd	Brent Celek	Maurice Morris	Jahvid Best
R13 ?	Jared Cook	James Starks	Matt Ryan	Ryan Fitzpatrick	Greg Little
R14 ?	Baltimore Ravens	Green Bay Packers	Josh Brown	David Akers	Alex Henery
R15 ?	Mason Crosby	Robbie Gould	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles

bruteFORCE	Luke Hoover	exlax	Craig Macchi - GridironGod.com	Mike Gottlieb: RotoWire Social Media Admin	Round
Aaron Rodgers	Tom Brady	Matt Forte	Drew Brees	Ryan Mathews	? R1
Chris Johnson	Trent Richardson	Cam Newton	Larry Fitzgerald	Andre Johnson	? R2
Victor Cruz	Jordy Nelson	Hakeem Nicks	Steven Jackson	Jamaal Charles	? R3
Frank Gore	Fred Jackson	Roddy White	Darren McFadden	Brandon Marshall	? R4
Tony Romo	Julio Jones	Steve Smith	DeSean Jackson	Dez Bryant	? R5
Roy Helu	Kenny Britt	Reggie Bush	Antonio Gates	Brandon Lloyd	? R6
Isaac Redman	Doug Martin	Jonathan Stewart	Pierre Garcon	Ben Roethlisberger	? R7
LeGarrette Blount	Peyton Hillis	DeAngelo Williams	San Francisco 49ers	Michael Bush	? R8
Cedric Benson	Justin Blackmon	Reggie Wayne	BenJarvus Green-Ellis	Jay Cutler	? R9
Tony Gonzalez	Eric Decker	Santonio Holmes	Torrey Smith	Malcom Floyd	? R10
Anquan Boldin	Mikel Leshoure	Daniel Thomas	Andrew Luck	Randy Moss	? R11
Santana Moss	Fred Davis	Vincent Brown	TE Placeholder	Jermaine Gresham	? R12
Mike Tolbert	Alex Green	Owen Daniels	Devin Hester	Pittsburgh Steelers	? R13
Sebastian Janikowski	Houston Texans	Stephen Gostkowski	Kevin Smith	Toby Gerhart	? R14
Detroit Lions	Matt Prater	Dallas Cowboys	Neil Rackers	Nate Kaeding	? R15

Mock Draft Monday Notes: 5/14

10-Team Standard Flex

§  Wide Receiver Pool is Crazy Deep: I know that this was only a 10-team league, but there are great values to be had at the wide receiver position, so do not feel bad if you do not snag Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, or Wes Welker early.  For example, Malcom Floyd and Robert Meachem were drafted in the 10^th and 11^th round respectively and will be competing to be Philip Rivers' #1 receiver in San Diego's traditionally high-powered offense.  Sure, they won't put up the same numbers as Megatron, but the difference in fantasy points will not be enough to discredit the value of getting a player like Meachem or Floyd approximately 100 picks later than one of the top wide receivers.  Speaking fo Floyds, Michael Floyd in Arizona is my sleeper this year.  The major knock on him coming out of Notre Dame was his route-running ability, but now he gets to learn from Larry Fitzgerald.  Problem solved.


§  …So is the Tight End Pool: Yes, Gronkowski and Graham separated themselves last year from other tight ends and had solid #2/low-end #1 wide receiver value, but there are viable substitutes if you do not get one of the top two TEs in the early rounds.  Aaron Hernandez is a good value four or five rounds later.  Plus, do not sleep on Coby Fleener's value in Indy, (known as TE Placeholder in this draft) especially in PPR formats.  Tight ends and running backs are rookie QBs best friends and Fleener and Andrew Luck already had a strong chemistry at Stanford before arriving at Indy together.


§  Don't Reach to Get a QB Early: Would I have taken Drew Brees with the 10^th overall pick?  Probably.  However, Macchi got him first at #9.  That left me staring at Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford's names as the next highest rated quarterbacks.  As tempting as it was to take Killer Cam, I chose to test the QB depth and was hoping for Philip Rivers in the sixth round, but had to settle for Roethlisberger when Kneel Before Zod! (great team name) took Rivers five picks before me.  Plus, I was able to nab Jay Cutler two rounds later to fill out what is a solid, but not spectacular QB tandem. 


§  Trent Richardson is the Most Volatile Draft Pick: Richardson went #14 overall to Luke Hoover who obviously believes in the rookie RB in Cleveland.  Will he have the opportunity to be a top-10 running back this season?  Yes.  However, he has an absolutely brutal schedule (good defenses in their divison plus games against the NFC East and vastly improved AFC West) and supporting cast.  This is what NFL.com says about the Browns 2012 schedule: "[The Browns] likely will be underdogs in every game they play against much more talented teams except for these two: an away tilt at Indianapolis in October, where Andrew Luck might have his sea legs under him; and a home game against the Redskins in mid-December."  Robert Griffin III may also have his sea legs under him in mid-December, as well.  Overall, Richardson is the ultimate boom-or-bust pick.


§ 
 

Initial Fantasy Football ADP Reactions

Yes, I know it's fantasy baseball season (how quickly has the first 20% of the season gone, by the way).  However, here are some things I've noticed about the latest (ADP) report from Mock Draft Central:

 

§  Matt Forte is being drafted way too high (7.59): I am aware that Matt Forte was arguably the best fantasy player last season until his injury, but remember he did get injured.  Additionally, the Bears have added Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall who will take away touches, especially in the end zone.  Don't get me wrong that Forte is still a great player and deserves to be the fifth running back off the board behind Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Jones-Drew, but at 7^th overall has a high bust potential.

§  Cam Newton should not be drafted before Tom Brady (9.38 v. 10.08): Unless you are starting a keeper league or are in a keeper league where Newton and Brady are available in the draft, this should never happen.  Yes, Newton dazzled everyone last season and proved all his doubters wrong, but that does not mean that he is all of a sudden a better fantasy option than Tom Brady.  The Patriots have had an EXCELLENT offseason improving their defense while adding Brandon Lloyd to the mix offensively.  Lloyd, who flourished under coach Josh McDaniels in Denver when Kyle Orton was at the helm, is reunited with his old coach with the quarterback, under McDaniels' system, threw 50 TDs.

§  The running back position gets ugly, quickly: After the first four running backs (who are being drafted 1.18 - 4.38 so if you're in the latter part of the first round good luck getting one), there is not a tremendous amount of value at the running back position.  It would behoove the players with picks 5 and later to address the other skill positions first.  Are you going to trust that Ryan Mathews (11.67) will be one of your two best performing players?  How about Chris Johnson (11.28)?  Marshawn Lynch (14.49)?  The bust potential is just way too high.  Go with safer options like Wes Welker (15.72), Rob Gronkowski (16.49), and Jimmy Graham (19.74) and wait for guys like Fred Jackson (40.03), Ahmad Bradshaw (41.00), and Michael Turner (37.97) later

§  Tim Tebow is massively overrated (74.28): Only if Tebow gains RB eligibility does he warrant a top-100 ranking (which speaks volumes about is QB ability).  This is coming from a guy who rolled with Tebow for a good portion of last season, but that was when he was the STARTING quarterback.  If you are going to bet on a player getting starter production, but is listed as a backup to start the year, go with Ben Tate (90.69) who has proven that he was a fantasy factor whether Arian Foster was in the lineup or not.

§  The Carolina Panthers RB situation is #1 on my O.P.P (Other People's Problem) list: Jonathan Stewart (63.15) and DeAngelo Williams (64.46) would be great values at those spots if they didn't have to compete against each other, Cam Newton (9.38), AND Mike Tolbert (117.62) for goal line carries.  There is no bigger logjam in the NFL than the RB depth chart in Carolina.

§  Vincent Jackson is not that good (32.49): This may be the Chargers in me talking, but Vincent Jackson is not worth late-third or early-fourth-round pick.  I'd take Brandon Marshall (33.74), Mike Wallace and his contract situation (36.90), or Dez Bryant (46.62) before Jackson (even if he was still on the Chargers).

§  Malcom Floyd on the other hand…(102.82) is a much better value: Quick, who led the NFL in yards/reception at a staggering clip of 19.9…that would be Malcom Floyd.  If you project his 856 receiving yards in 12 games to a 16 game season, he would have had 1,070.  Not bad, right?  With that being said, Vincent Jackson was no slouch finishing 6^th in yards per reception and over 1,100 yards receiving, but I do not have the same confidence in Jackson's new QB Josh Freeman (who will be learning a new system under new head coach Greg Schiano) as I do in his old QB Philip Rivers.  Also, in what world should Vincent Brown (98.69) be drafted before Floyd?

§  Peyton Hillis (65.72) should NOT be above Michael Bush (72.67): I understand that Hillis' 22" pythons are mesmerizing, but lets get real: Michael Bush will finish the year with more TDs than Hillis.  Both RBs, barring injuries to incumbent starters ahead of them on their respective teams, will primarily be TD vultures and should be valued in terms of TDs first and yards second.