Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Initial Fantasy Football ADP Reactions

Yes, I know it's fantasy baseball season (how quickly has the first 20% of the season gone, by the way).  However, here are some things I've noticed about the latest (ADP) report from Mock Draft Central:


§  Matt Forte is being drafted way too high (7.59): I am aware that Matt Forte was arguably the best fantasy player last season until his injury, but remember he did get injured.  Additionally, the Bears have added Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall who will take away touches, especially in the end zone.  Don't get me wrong that Forte is still a great player and deserves to be the fifth running back off the board behind Foster, McCoy, Rice, and Jones-Drew, but at 7th overall has a high bust potential.

§  Cam Newton should not be drafted before Tom Brady (9.38 v. 10.08): Unless you are starting a keeper league or are in a keeper league where Newton and Brady are available in the draft, this should never happen.  Yes, Newton dazzled everyone last season and proved all his doubters wrong, but that does not mean that he is all of a sudden a better fantasy option than Tom Brady.  The Patriots have had an EXCELLENT offseason improving their defense while adding Brandon Lloyd to the mix offensively.  Lloyd, who flourished under coach Josh McDaniels in Denver when Kyle Orton was at the helm, is reunited with his old coach with the quarterback, under McDaniels' system, threw 50 TDs.

§  The running back position gets ugly, quickly: After the first four running backs (who are being drafted 1.18 - 4.38 so if you're in the latter part of the first round good luck getting one), there is not a tremendous amount of value at the running back position.  It would behoove the players with picks 5 and later to address the other skill positions first.  Are you going to trust that Ryan Mathews (11.67) will be one of your two best performing players?  How about Chris Johnson (11.28)?  Marshawn Lynch (14.49)?  The bust potential is just way too high.  Go with safer options like Wes Welker (15.72), Rob Gronkowski (16.49), and Jimmy Graham (19.74) and wait for guys like Fred Jackson (40.03), Ahmad Bradshaw (41.00), and Michael Turner (37.97) later

§  Tim Tebow is massively overrated (74.28): Only if Tebow gains RB eligibility does he warrant a top-100 ranking (which speaks volumes about is QB ability).  This is coming from a guy who rolled with Tebow for a good portion of last season, but that was when he was the STARTING quarterback.  If you are going to bet on a player getting starter production, but is listed as a backup to start the year, go with Ben Tate (90.69) who has proven that he was a fantasy factor whether Arian Foster was in the lineup or not.

§  The Carolina Panthers RB situation is #1 on my O.P.P (Other People's Problem) list: Jonathan Stewart (63.15) and DeAngelo Williams (64.46) would be great values at those spots if they didn't have to compete against each other, Cam Newton (9.38), AND Mike Tolbert (117.62) for goal line carries.  There is no bigger logjam in the NFL than the RB depth chart in Carolina.

§  Vincent Jackson is not that good (32.49): This may be the Chargers in me talking, but Vincent Jackson is not worth late-third or early-fourth-round pick.  I'd take Brandon Marshall (33.74), Mike Wallace and his contract situation (36.90), or Dez Bryant (46.62) before Jackson (even if he was still on the Chargers).

§  Malcom Floyd on the other hand…(102.82) is a much better value: Quick, who led the NFL in yards/reception at a staggering clip of 19.9…that would be Malcom Floyd.  If you project his 856 receiving yards in 12 games to a 16 game season, he would have had 1,070.  Not bad, right?  With that being said, Vincent Jackson was no slouch finishing 6th in yards per reception and over 1,100 yards receiving, but I do not have the same confidence in Jackson's new QB Josh Freeman (who will be learning a new system under new head coach Greg Schiano) as I do in his old QB Philip Rivers.  Also, in what world should Vincent Brown (98.69) be drafted before Floyd?

§  Peyton Hillis (65.72) should NOT be above Michael Bush (72.67): I understand that Hillis' 22" pythons are mesmerizing, but lets get real: Michael Bush will finish the year with more TDs than Hillis.  Both RBs, barring injuries to incumbent starters ahead of them on their respective teams, will primarily be TD vultures and should be valued in terms of TDs first and yards second.

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