Thursday, September 20, 2012

NFL Week 3 Against the Spread

Last week was good.  10-5-1 good.  Your welcome.  So now that my arm hurts from patting myself on the back, lets go get humbled.

Week 3 is one of the more even weeks as far as matchups are concerned starting with the showdown tonight between the Carolina Panthers and New York Football Giants.  The Giants are going to be without Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw while Carolina is looking like they will be without Jonathan Stewart (if he's on your fantasy team, you are all too used to checking on his injury status prior to kickoffs so you should be well trained by now to do so).  Anyway, here are the picks followed by the slam dunks.

Home TeamAway TeamSpread SbG's Pick
Carolina PanthersNew York GiantsCarolina (+1.5)CAR
Chicago BearsSt. Louis RamsChicago (-10)STL
Dallas CowboysTampa Bay BuccaneersDallas (-7)DAL
Minnesota VikingsSan Francisco 49ersMinnesota (+7.5)SF
Tennessee TitansDetroit LionsTennessee (+3.5)DET
Washington RedskinsCincinnati BengalsWashington (-4)CIN
Miami DolphinsNew York JetsMiami (+3)NYJ
New Orleans SaintsKansas City ChiefsNew Orleans (-9)NO
Cleveland BrownsBuffalo BillsCleveland (+3)BUF
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville JaguarsIndianapolis (-3)IND
Arizona CardinalsPhiladelphia EaglesArizona (+4)ARZ
San Diego ChargersAtlanta FalconsSan Diego (-1.5)ATL
Denver BroncosHouston TexansDenver (+2)HOU
Oakland RaidersPittsburgh SteelersOakland (+4.5)PIT
Baltimore RavensNew England PatriotsBalitmore (-3)NE
Seattle SeahawksGreen Bay PackersSeattle (+3.5)SEA
Season17 - 14 - 1
Last Week10 - 5 - 1

Slam Dunks: Last week was the first slam dunk special and they were 2-2-1 (damn you, Cleveland!  Who kicks a meaningless field goal to hit the spread!).  Anyway, this week I have a fresh batch of slam dunks.

  1. Houston Texans (-2) @ Denver Broncos: Will this game be a blowout?  Probably not, but if I don't have to give more than a field goal when it comes to the Texans, I'm taking the Texans.  Wade Phillips has turned that defense around from a joke to what is often the best in the league.  The new book on Peyton Manning is out, and it plays into the hands of the Texans.  Manning has had trouble driving the ball down the field (was never his strong suit anyway), which means that blitzing/getting pressure in Manning's face is paramount.  Good thing Houston's "sWatt Comapany" knows how to A) get to the QB and B) have solid coverage.  All at the same time.  Look for Houston to take it by 5 points minimum.
  2. Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans: Am I missing something?  Did Tennessee suddenly turn it all around?  Is that defense going to suddenly be able to coral Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and the rest of the Lions offense?  No.Way.  Detroit by a touchdown.
  3. Chicago Bears (-10) vs. St. Louis Rams: Jay Cutler is not an elite quarterback, but he's in the next group of quarterbacks.  He is in the "best QB's who have not won a Super Bowl" crowd with Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, and Joe Flacco.  Who is not on that list?  Sam Bradford of the Rams.  Not only do the Bears have an advantage at the QB position, but at nearly every other position on the field, as well.  A true mismatch.  Bears by 12.
  4. Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Cleveland Browns: Cleveland's Brandon Weeden is going to be in for another long day with Mark Anderson, Marcel Dareus, and Mario Williams chasing him for 60 minutes.  That Bills defense looked amazing last weekend against Kansas City until letting up two garbage time TDs. It's more about how bad Cleveland is than how great Buffalo is, but Buffalo should win by a TD.
  5. Carolina Panthers (+1.5) vs. New York Giants: Another decent bet would be to take the under on this game (51.5).  The Giants do have the personnel to keep Cam Newton in the pocket (best front-four in football).  However, the Giants will also not have Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks (the bigger loss) suiting up tonight.  all of this spells a low scoring affair, with Eli Manning leading the Giants to a game-winning FG (22-21).  If this is actually correct, I appreciate all checks made out to cash.

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