Thursday, September 27, 2012

NFL Week 4 Against the Spread

Good thing I put out that disclaimer last week saying that "Past performance does not dictate future results."  Not that I was terrible last week, but 7-8-1 (3-2 on slam dunks, though) is not where we want to be.  This week has a bunch of tough lines, as well, but the slam dunks should guide you through a successful betting weekend.  Enjoy the picks.

Home TeamAway TeamSpread SbG's pick
Baltimore RavensCleveland BrownsBaltimore (-12.5)CLE
Buffalo BillsNew England PatriotsBuffalo (+4.5)NE
Detroit LionsMinnesota VikingsDetroit (-6)DET
Atlanta FalconsCarolina PanthersAtlanta (-7.5)ATL
New York JetsSan Francisco 49ersNew York (+4.5)SF
Kansas City ChiefsSan Diego ChargersKansas City (+1)SD
Houston Texans Tennessee TitansHouston (-12)TEN
St. Louis RamsSeattle SeahawksSt. Louis (+3)STL
Arizona CardinalsMiami DolphinsArizona (-4.5)ARZ
Denver BroncosOakland RaidersDenver (-5.5)DEN
Jacksonville JaguarsCincinnati BengalsJacksonville (+3)CIN
Green Bay PackersNew Orleans SaintsGreen Bay (-8)NO
Tampa Bay BuccaneersWashington RedskinsTampa Bay (-3)WSH
Philadelphia EaglesNew York GiantsPhiladelphia (-1)NYG
Dallas CowboysChicago BearsDallas (-3.5)DAL
Season24 - 22 - 2
Last Week7 - 8 - 1

Slam Dunks: A 3-2 performance last week brings the dunks into the black with a total record of 5-4-1.  There are definitely a few perplexing lines that should lead to some profit, but then there are games like the Monday Night affair where you have to watch out for the hook when Dallas (-3.5) plays host to the Bears.  That hook could easily burn you, so stay away.

  1. New York Giants (+1) @ Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are good, but the Giants are better.  The only reason why I previously picked the Eagles to win the division was because of the schedule, not because of talent.  The Giants, and Eli Manning in particular, have been nothing short of impressive all season, so far.  Did anyone else notice how they shut down Cam Newton?  A battered and bruised Mike Vick should be no problem for the best front-four in the NFL.  Take the Giants and take them outright.  Giants 27, Eagles 24 (score won't indicate how much the Giants dominated)
  2. San Diego (-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are not as bad as they showed in the first two weeks, but don't get it twisted: The Chargers defense is not nearly as bad as the Saints Defense.  If the Chiefs win this game, it would have to be a low scoring affair, and I just don't see that happening.  Philip Rivers, in a bounce-back game, will finally start to show some chemistry with Robert Meachem on some deep routes.  Chargers 30, Chiefs 20
  3. San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) @ New York Jets: When I first saw this game when the schedule came out, I was all over this game as a potential upset for the Jets...then two things happened: 1.  San Fran inexplicably lost to the Vikings and 2.  Darrelle Revis tore is ACL and is now done for the year.  The latter being more important in this case.  This game was a mismatch on paper before, and is now a mismatch emotionally and physically.  Without Revis, Rex Ryan's pressure based defense is reliant on Antonio Cromartie and Kyle Wilson (<----pick him up in IDP leagues).  Yikes.  49ers 24, Jets 6 (if they're lucky to get that many points)
  4. New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Buffalo Bills: The Patriots will not go 1-3.  Bill is going to Beli-Check himself before he wrecks himself.  Look for him go to back to the basics and give Wes Welker the damn ball.  For all of those who say that Tom Brady is a great leader, this is the time where he has to show it and tell Belichek that it's time to get back to what led the Patriots to victory after victory the past few years: Wes Welker's dominance opening up space for guys like Gronkowski and Deion Branch (heee's baaacckkk).  Throw in some Brandon Lloyd, and the Bills are simply screwed.  Patriots 31, Bills 22
  5. Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) Vs. Miami Dolphins: The Cardinals will win this game, but it won't be pretty.  I see this being a letdown game for the Cardinals who, for the first time since their Super Bowl run in 2008, have growing enthusiasm and expectations mounting.  It'll be closer than some people think, but the Cardinals will get it done.  Cardinals 23, Dolphins 17

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