Sunday, February 3, 2013

Super Bowl Prop Bets: The Best Way to Watch the Big Game

It's that time of the year (I know, the year is young): The Super Bowl.  When every football fan abandons all other responsibilities for at least four hours.  To everyone else: you can get in on the fun, and not even care about what happens in the game!  How?  With the prop betting.  The most random bits of awesomeness all congealed into one juicy extravaganza.  Everything from wardrobe malfunctions to coin toss pontification is covered, and anyone can look like a genius...and make some money.  Last year, I went 7-for-10 on my prop bets so stay tuned.

If you would like the most eloquent and stat-riddled prediction, I strongly suggest Nate Silver's article.  Here is an infographic preview of his prediction:
This article, however, is not about that.  This is for the masses that won't be caring about how guys in tight pants slapping each other on the butt (and in some cases pulling footballs out of each other butts).  This is for the +1s at your party.  Speaking of Super Bowl parties, I strongly suggest posting these at Super Bowl parties.  It's tons of fun and can see a lot o fmoney change hands over the funniest things.  My buddy Adam, who not only has had the most kickass beard, has also bet on "over/under Peter Townsend windmills: 3.5" at one super bowl.  That is probably the easiest bet in the world for anyone who has watched a Who concert.  He can eclipse that in one guitar solo...easy.  Fun, right?  Especially for those who clicked that link to see that glorious Erik the Red beard.  You can check out his travel blog with his wife here and live vicariously through their amazing pictures.  Now, to the bets.

Alicia Keys-related Bets: If you have the pleasure of being with me during the Super Bowl, there is a separate bet of how many times I profess how hot and awesome the R&B singer is (over/under: 2.5), but here are the more legitimate bets.
Alicia Keys....yes, please!

  • How long will Alicia Keys take to sing the national anthem?  Over/Under: 2 min, 10 sec
    • Under: Although she sings at a slower pace than most to showcase her amazing (one mention) pipes, the national anthem is a different story.  It's a high pressure moment -- especially after Christina Aguilera's fiasco only a few years ago.  That is why she will take the "less is more" strategy and keep the embellishments to a minimum and just belt out our anthem and call it an evening.  Prediction: 1 min, 55 sec
  • Will Alicia Keys be booed during her rendition of the National Anthem?  Odds: 5:1
    • No: Unless someone is going to invent the "boos of joy" in the next eight hours, there will be no booing.  Ms. Keys is simply too hot and awesome (two).  And, there's no "oooo" in her name like Green Bay fullback John Kuuuuhhhhn.  Not much profit here, but easy money is still money nonetheless.
  • Will Alicia Keys add or omit a word to the National Anthem?  Odds: Yes (3:2) - No (1/2)
    • No: Once again, too awesome (three).  Not as confident in this one because she is such a professional that small mistakes can, once in a while, get the better of her.  And, if you haven't been following her career recently, she's pretty damn near perfect.  There should be a separate bet asking if anyone notices if she makes a mistake.  But when I'm conflicted like this, I always take the side of talent, and Ms. Keys is pretty damn talented (three-and-a-half?)...

All Beyonce-Related Bets: I'd say that the roles of Alicia Keys and Beyonce should be reversed, but apparently, Beyonce can't sing the National Anthem live, either.  Whatever, this is the halftime show this year and we all have to just turn on the Puppy Bowl equipped with its own "Cat"htime show to see some real talent.
Beyonce will be "singing" during
  • Will Beyonce be joined by Jay-Z during the halftime show?  Odds: Yes (11:10), No (2:3)
    • Yes: First underdog prop bet pick of the day.  This move not only makes sense to perform some of her songs, but it is also a primetime chance for the most celebrated less than 1% owner in sports to publicize his team: the Brooklyn Nets.
  • Will Beyonce's hair be straight or curly/crimped?  Odds: Straight (1:2), Curly (3:2)
    • Curly: Beyonce went straight at the inauguration and, unless she wants to get another perm (or a trip to Dry Bar or whatever women do now to straighten their hair) to make it perfectly straight again, she'll go for the curly/crimped look.  Anything to distract the audience from her lack of singing.
  • What will Beyonce's outfit's predominant color be?  Odds: Black (9:4), Gold/Yellow (5:2), Silver/Grey (4:1), White (5:1), Red (13:2), Pink (15:2), Orange (12:1), Blue (15:1), Green (15:1)
    • Black: I polled ten women, and seven of them said black, two said white, and one said, "who gives a shit?"...That was a very "red" answer to me.  Anyway, Black serves two purposes for Beyonce: 1) It's thinning and 2) the Nets predominant color is Black, and I anticipate her having some sort of Nets paraphernalia.  

Super Bowl 47 Predictions: The Harbowl

San Francisco 49ers vs. Baltimore Ravens
It's all come down to this.  The Harbowl as predicted by +Dave Gottlieb (@davegot) after week 1.  If you want the entertainment prop bets, please go here.  Is anyone else sick of the "Harbowl" yet?  Yeah, me too.  SO let's just move on to some (hopefully) money-making predictions.

  • Will Either Team Score 3 Consecutive Times: No (+150): This game does not feel like its going to be a game of streaks.  Both teams seem very evenly matched.  Plus, David Akers has tons of confidence problems kicking FG for SF, and I think SF will do the majority of the scoring.  This opens up the door for Justin Tucker to kick the sporadic FG to stop any streakiness of the Niners.
  • Will There Be A Scoreless Quarter in the Game: Yes (+300): And I think it'll be the third quarter, specifically.  This is when both defenses will adjust to what the opposing offense is doing and will give themselves a full 15 minutes of glory.  Other than that, I make no promises.
  • Will There Be A Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown: Yes (+160): Both defenses are loaded with playmakers, and both offenses have QBs who can make a big mistake.  Furthermore, Baltimore kick returner Jacoby Jones is really, really good.
  • Will Colin Kaepernick Score a Rushing Touchdown: Yes (+110): This one is just a hunch, but I think that he will score a goal line TD.  I do not think he will rush for a ton of yards because Baltimore wants to make the chess match between Kaepernick's arm vs. Ed Reed's playmaking ability.

  • Will Ed Reed Intercept A Pass: Yes (+250): This is an @davegot special.  He doesn't think it's even a question if Reed picks off a pass; rather, whether or not when Reed picks the ball off, does he score?  Bold, very bold.  Just the way I like it.

  • Will Randy Moss Catch a TD Pass: Yes (+250): Moss has not been unleashed yet, and Kaepernick has the arm to launch one downfield for the still ridiculously tall and fast WR.  Like @davegot, this is the @sportsbygotti bold prediction.  I don't think it's a question of if, but how long will that TD be (53 is my guess).

  • Who Will Record a Catch First: Ray Rice or Randy Moss: Ray Rice (-160): Playing it safe with this one.  As much as I love me some Randy Moss, I don't think he'll catch a pass before the other Ray on Baltimore.
  • The First San Francisco First Down Will Result Due to a Rushing Play (+140): No team loves to run the ball more than SF, and who can blame them with one of the best ever assembled run-blocking offensive lines.  That O-line can hurt people.  Plus, Kaepernick runs a little bit.
  • Total Field Goals Attempted: Over/Under 4: Over (+110): This game may come down to Justin Tucker vs. David Akers, and for San Fran's sake, it better not.  These two defenses toughen up in the red zone, which should lead to plenty of 3-pointers attempted.
  • The Big One: San Francisco (-4) vs. Baltimore: I've waffled (mmm waffles) many times on this one, but not about who is going to win.  Four is such a perfect number for the spread.  This feels like a 31-27, 28-24 affair.  Baltimore, as I mentioned two weeks ago, plays up to superior opponents almost as well as it plays down to inferior ones, and the 49ers are the superior team.  Every scenario I've run through says the 49ers will win, but by how much?  I am going to air on the side of SFs ability to put points on the board in a variety of ways as well as making great second half adjustments on defense (just ask Atlanta) to shut opposing offenses down.  Give me San Francisco and I'll lay down the 4, reluctantly.  Final Score: San Francisco 34, Baltimore 28
Sorry, Ray-Ray.  Last dance falls one step short.