Sunday, September 15, 2013

2013 NFL Week 2: You Can Bet On It

Week 1 Record: 9-7
Season Record: 9-7

Solid start in week 1 going 9-7, but not great.  Ideally, you want to be at 10-6, 11-5 to maximize profits (if you bet every game).  I'm going to pick both against the spread (ats) and over/unders (o/u).  We'll see how this experiment works.

Already bet: Jets (+14) @ Patriots (o/u: 43.5) Took Jets & Under (will almost always take under on Thursday games). #Winning.  Off to a great start.

San Diego Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5):

ATS: Eagles  O/U: Over (54)

If the games were only three quarters long, the Chargers would be a force to be reckoned with.  Unfortunately, both of those statements are not true.  Short week for the Chargers, traveling to eastern time zone, 1pm ET start (feels like 10am for SD), playing against Chip Kelly offense with Vick, McCoy, Brown, and Jackson all healthy.  Recipe for extreme disaster.  Look for the Chargers to be thunderstruck by the Eagles.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6):

ATS: Browns  O/U: Under (44)

Both teams poorly represented themselves in week one.  Both teams are not nearly as bad as they looked.  I still believe in Cleveland's 'best coordinator staff' in the NFL, but not enough to win straight up against one of the best head coaches in the NFL.  Ravens/Browns has gone under 5 of the last 5 times they've played.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-8):

ATS: Texans  O/U: Over (44)

Houston almost embarrassed themselves Monday night against the Chargers, but mounted a late rally to preserve their first win of the season.  Didn't cover, though.  I expect the Texans to get off to a much better start against a familiar Titans opponent, which will force the game on Locker's arm -- not a good place for the Titans to be.  I'll also predict, +Dave Gottlieb style, that Ed Reed will have an INT (if he plays).  These two teams have hit the over 4 of the last 5 times they've played each other, so I'm going to go with the trend.

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5):

ATS: Colts  O/U: Under (43)

I do not understand the excitement surrounding the Dolphins and equally do not understand the skepticism of the Colts.  This line started at pick 'em and moved nearly 3 points.  That's a huge betting trend.  Take the Colts.  The total was under in the past 5 Colts games and 6 of the last 7 Dolphins road games, soooo trend says under. 

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Buffalo Bills:

ATS: Panthers  O/U: Under (43.5)

The Panthers defense was very impressive last week against the Seahawks in a losing effort.  EJ Manuel is a poor man's Russell Wilson: advantage Panthers defense (if they play the same way).  Luke Kuechly has been a godsend to that defense and he has that unit playing very well.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, the offense didn't fire last week.  I think they do enough to win by more than three, although it will be ugly.  Just like how the Seahawks did to the Panthers last week.

St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5):

ATS: Falcons  O/U: Over (47)

The Falcons came one Kenny Vaccaro pass deflected away from going into New Orleans and geting a win.  Instead, they come back home licking their chops.  Unfortunately for the Rams, they are the team that will be on the receiving end of The Falcons' best efforts. Falcons are 21-3 ATS following a straight up loss, as well.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (-7):

ATS: Packers  O/U: Over (50)

RG3 looked better as last week's game went along, but he is going to be playing against a defense that was just embarrassed by Colin Kaepernick.  Normally, this is good news for a similarly-skilled QB.  However, Griffin is not similarly-skilled enough to Kap to make the same throws.  The lack of quality options in the pass game doesn't help, either.  They'll score some points, but not nearly as many as Rodgers & co.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3):

ATS: Kansas City  O/U: Under (45.5)

Cowboys forced six turnovers and BARELY won.  They will not do either this week. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-6):

ATS: Vikings  O/U: Under (41.5)

100% chance of rain in Chicago means that it will be sloppier than normal for Jay Cutler and Christian Ponder throwing the ball.  Unless the Bears score 14 points from its defense, the under is a lock.  The rain makes the game closer than 6 points, but the Bears won't really break a sweat straight up.

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

ATS: Saints  O/U: Over (48)

The Saints beat the Falcons last week with its defense.  Rob Ryan's defense will only get better as the season progresses.  The Bucs really needed to get off to a good start last week, but literally pushed the Jets to victory and out of the jaws of defeat.  

Detroit Lions (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals:

ATS: Lions  O/U: Over (48)

Lions offense is no joke.  Bush and Bell in the backfield are dangerous in PPR fantasy leagues and in real life.  Refs still hate Calvin Johnson TD catches, but still..the Lions have more than enough to take care of the Cardinals.  May hit the over themselves.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders (-5.5):

ATS: Jaguars O/U: Under (40)

It's not that I particularly like the Jags, but the Raiders shouldn't be giving 5.5 to anyone.  This will be a war of attrition, and the total of 40 is a tad high.  This has 18-17 written all over it.

Denver Broncos @ New York Giants (-4):

ATS: Broncos  O/U: Under (55)

Peyton will not throw 7 TDs again.  I know, bold prediction.  But still, the Giants secondary is shaky, at best, and its pass rush was effective in spots against Dallas.  If they don't consistently get pressure on Peyton, he'll throw for 4 TDs.  The Broncos will cover the four, but it won't be as much of a shootout as it was against the Ravens.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3): 

ATS: 49ers  O/U: Over (44)

Marquis matchup of the week.  And the best part is that it happens at least twice this year.  Both teams have great defenses, but they're very familiar to the offenses, which will cut through them for the over.  Back the niners because Kaepernick has shown he can win games throwing AND/OR running the football.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5):

ATS: Bengals  O/U: Under (41)

This will be a homage to old school football.  This will be a slobberknocker with big hits coming from both sides of the James Harrison bowl.  A.J. Green puts the Bengals over the top, but this seems like a 17-10 scoreline.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

NFL Week 1: You Can Bet On It

It's finally here.  The NFL season starts and it is finally time for me to make some real money.  Last year, I finished 13 games over .500, and I'm back for more.  This time with some more stats that I use for each matchup.

BUF (+10) vs. NE seems like a sucker bet -- as if Vegas is daring you to have faith in the Bills.  Here’s the thing, I’m ignoring the spread.  Both teams were .500 performers against the spread last year Instead, I’m taking the over (51.5).  This game has hit the over 5 of the last 6 times they’ve played.

TEN (+6.5) @ PIT is going to be closer than most people think.  Both teams were bad against the spreads last year (6-10 and 6-9-1 respectively).  The Steelers do not possess an offense that can run away from anyone. Give me TEN and the points

ATL (+3) @ NO I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: There is no more motivated NFL team than the Saints.  If I only have to go give 3 points with the Saints at home, I’m taking the Saints and trusting Brees & Co.

KC (-3) @ JAX the picture says it least if you believe the media hype.  New coach Andy Reid has made stars out of lesser players, and now he has Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles.  Look out.  I’d take KC if the spread was six.  Great value bet here.
CIN (+3.5) @ CHI is a very important game for both teams.  Should be very, very close.  Watch for the hook with this one (the extra .5 point) because CHI was 7-8-1 ATS last season.  That extra half point sways me to back the Bengals

TB (-2.5) @ NYJ will not be a close game.  Revis island, the best part of the Jets last year, is in Tampa.  And even though the Bucs were 7-9 last year, they were 9-6-1 ATS, and they got better talent-wise this year.  Take the Bucs and lay down the points.

CLE (+1) vs. MIA will be the home-dog of the week pick.  If you pick games every week, you must pick at least one home team who is getting points.  CLE has one of the best sets of coordinators in the league.  MIA...doesn’t. Give me CLE to win outright.

CAR (+3) vs. SEA will be fun to watch, but easy to predict.  CAR is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at home.  SEA was 11-5 ATS last season.  It smells like a BIG Seahawks win.  Back the Hawks on the road and lay down the 3.

MIN (+3.5) @ DET will be the beginning to the tale of two teams going in opposite directions this season.  The numbers don’t reflect it with Detroit going 5-10-1 ATS last year, but I think they buck that trend and will give the 3.5 and take the Lions at home.

OAK (-11) @ IND is a huge mismatch, but 11 points?  Seems to be a little too much.  This is not to say that the Raiders will keep this game close, but a garbage time TD to bring a 31-17 game to 31-24 is a cover for the Raiders.  11 is too many, take the Raiders and hold your breath.

ARZ (+3.5) @ STL will be a very telling game for both teams.  Both need to grab wins where they can because their schedules are very difficult.  I’m taking STL and giving the points because they were 11-5 ATS last season.

SF (-4.5) vs. GB is, along with ATL/NO, the marquis matchup of the day.  I can see this game go either way, so I am avoiding the spread and going with the over (50.5).  Last 5 SF games = 5 overs.

NYG (+3) @ DAL is completely unpredictable. The Giants, however, are 5-1 in their last 6 @DAL, which is enough for me to take the Giants and the three points -- with no confidence.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

2013 NFL Over/Unders: You Can Bet On It

After a long hiatus, I'm back.  And I brought some friends with me.  Today, we tackle NFL team over/unders (wins) in 2013.  Last season, I finished 21-7-4.  That likely will not happen again.  This year, I polled myself, @davegot, @adamweeg, @T00LE, and @timmyk13 about every team's over under.  Here are the full results and some quotes.  Very few teams were unanimous overs or unders.  Vegas did well prognosticating most teams this season, but there are ways to make bank.  And these are those ways:

Unanimous Overs

Cincinnati Bengals (8.5)

"Weak division, Chargers, Minnesota? Who could ask for more. They will be the small stack in the Division Champion set" -@timmyk13

Detroit Lions (7.5)

"Above average QBs, WRs and DLs. Below average RBs, LBs and CBs. Smells like 8-8" -@davegot

Green Bay Packers (8.5)

"Defense can only get better. Plus, they have a RB now!" -@sportsbygotti

New England Patriots (11)

"Looking for Belicheck to go a little more pass heavy since the majority think they will be running this year. Their formula has worked in their favor for the last decade, and I see no reason as to why it should stop now considering the competition in that division." -T00LE

New Orleans Saints (9.5)

"Cant wait to see this team back in action. Sean Payton is back, Bounty Gate is all but forgotten, everyone is healthy. NE is the tough game. Either could win that one, and I see SEA picking up a win. Splitting with ATL (conservative option) that leaves them with 13. Home field through the NFC Championship against SEA." -@timmyk13

San Francisco 49ers (11)

"The division is TOUGH -- unlike most of the rest of their schedule." -@SportsByGotti

Unanimous Unders

Arizona Cardinals (5.5)

"Bruce Arians isn't the answer either. Vertical shots from Palmer to Fitz sound great, but not when you have a gaping hole in the left side of your line and you couldn't do that last year anyway. Be lucky to win 4" -@adamweeg

Buffalo Bills (6)

"I don't see a .500 college coach and a rookie QB tearing up the league. Although, I do love seeing a guy named Tuel in the leaugue." -T00LE (it's a homonym...get it?!)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5)

"Under: Strong competition with OAK and maybe NYJ for #1 pick [in the 2014 NFL Draft]" -@davegot

Minnesota Vikings (7)

"Tough schedule in a tough division. I count 4 wins." -@adamweeg

"Another cringe worthy schedule especially when you consider they have a week 5 BYE. AP stays healthy? Maybe. Does it matter? only in fantasy leagues, not the NFL." -@timmyk13

New York Jets (6)

 "Under: Any explanation needed?" -@adamweeg

"Probably couldn't win 6 CFL games" -@SportsByGotti

Oakland Raiders (5)

"Their fans will kill more people than they win games." -@timmyk13

San Diego Chargers (7.5)

"I think 5 would be lucky. No playmakers except Gates (always gets injured). Still can't rush passer and can't really cover either. Harder than average schedule too" -@davegot

St. Louis Rams (7.5)

"Could be a playoff-contending team if they played in any other division" -@SportsByGotti

Tennessee Titans (6.5)

"Just barely under with 6 wins. Still not sold on Jake Locker being a starting QB in the NFL." -@T00LE