Sunday, September 15, 2013

2013 NFL Week 2: You Can Bet On It

Week 1 Record: 9-7
Season Record: 9-7

Solid start in week 1 going 9-7, but not great.  Ideally, you want to be at 10-6, 11-5 to maximize profits (if you bet every game).  I'm going to pick both against the spread (ats) and over/unders (o/u).  We'll see how this experiment works.

Already bet: Jets (+14) @ Patriots (o/u: 43.5) Took Jets & Under (will almost always take under on Thursday games). #Winning.  Off to a great start.

San Diego Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5):

ATS: Eagles  O/U: Over (54)

If the games were only three quarters long, the Chargers would be a force to be reckoned with.  Unfortunately, both of those statements are not true.  Short week for the Chargers, traveling to eastern time zone, 1pm ET start (feels like 10am for SD), playing against Chip Kelly offense with Vick, McCoy, Brown, and Jackson all healthy.  Recipe for extreme disaster.  Look for the Chargers to be thunderstruck by the Eagles.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6):

ATS: Browns  O/U: Under (44)

Both teams poorly represented themselves in week one.  Both teams are not nearly as bad as they looked.  I still believe in Cleveland's 'best coordinator staff' in the NFL, but not enough to win straight up against one of the best head coaches in the NFL.  Ravens/Browns has gone under 5 of the last 5 times they've played.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (-8):

ATS: Texans  O/U: Over (44)

Houston almost embarrassed themselves Monday night against the Chargers, but mounted a late rally to preserve their first win of the season.  Didn't cover, though.  I expect the Texans to get off to a much better start against a familiar Titans opponent, which will force the game on Locker's arm -- not a good place for the Titans to be.  I'll also predict, +Dave Gottlieb style, that Ed Reed will have an INT (if he plays).  These two teams have hit the over 4 of the last 5 times they've played each other, so I'm going to go with the trend.

Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5):

ATS: Colts  O/U: Under (43)

I do not understand the excitement surrounding the Dolphins and equally do not understand the skepticism of the Colts.  This line started at pick 'em and moved nearly 3 points.  That's a huge betting trend.  Take the Colts.  The total was under in the past 5 Colts games and 6 of the last 7 Dolphins road games, soooo trend says under. 

Carolina Panthers (-3) @ Buffalo Bills:

ATS: Panthers  O/U: Under (43.5)

The Panthers defense was very impressive last week against the Seahawks in a losing effort.  EJ Manuel is a poor man's Russell Wilson: advantage Panthers defense (if they play the same way).  Luke Kuechly has been a godsend to that defense and he has that unit playing very well.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, the offense didn't fire last week.  I think they do enough to win by more than three, although it will be ugly.  Just like how the Seahawks did to the Panthers last week.

St. Louis Rams @ Atlanta Falcons (-5.5):

ATS: Falcons  O/U: Over (47)

The Falcons came one Kenny Vaccaro pass deflected away from going into New Orleans and geting a win.  Instead, they come back home licking their chops.  Unfortunately for the Rams, they are the team that will be on the receiving end of The Falcons' best efforts. Falcons are 21-3 ATS following a straight up loss, as well.

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (-7):

ATS: Packers  O/U: Over (50)

RG3 looked better as last week's game went along, but he is going to be playing against a defense that was just embarrassed by Colin Kaepernick.  Normally, this is good news for a similarly-skilled QB.  However, Griffin is not similarly-skilled enough to Kap to make the same throws.  The lack of quality options in the pass game doesn't help, either.  They'll score some points, but not nearly as many as Rodgers & co.

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3):

ATS: Kansas City  O/U: Under (45.5)

Cowboys forced six turnovers and BARELY won.  They will not do either this week. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (-6):

ATS: Vikings  O/U: Under (41.5)

100% chance of rain in Chicago means that it will be sloppier than normal for Jay Cutler and Christian Ponder throwing the ball.  Unless the Bears score 14 points from its defense, the under is a lock.  The rain makes the game closer than 6 points, but the Bears won't really break a sweat straight up.

New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

ATS: Saints  O/U: Over (48)

The Saints beat the Falcons last week with its defense.  Rob Ryan's defense will only get better as the season progresses.  The Bucs really needed to get off to a good start last week, but literally pushed the Jets to victory and out of the jaws of defeat.  

Detroit Lions (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals:

ATS: Lions  O/U: Over (48)

Lions offense is no joke.  Bush and Bell in the backfield are dangerous in PPR fantasy leagues and in real life.  Refs still hate Calvin Johnson TD catches, but still..the Lions have more than enough to take care of the Cardinals.  May hit the over themselves.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders (-5.5):

ATS: Jaguars O/U: Under (40)

It's not that I particularly like the Jags, but the Raiders shouldn't be giving 5.5 to anyone.  This will be a war of attrition, and the total of 40 is a tad high.  This has 18-17 written all over it.

Denver Broncos @ New York Giants (-4):

ATS: Broncos  O/U: Under (55)

Peyton will not throw 7 TDs again.  I know, bold prediction.  But still, the Giants secondary is shaky, at best, and its pass rush was effective in spots against Dallas.  If they don't consistently get pressure on Peyton, he'll throw for 4 TDs.  The Broncos will cover the four, but it won't be as much of a shootout as it was against the Ravens.

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (-3): 

ATS: 49ers  O/U: Over (44)

Marquis matchup of the week.  And the best part is that it happens at least twice this year.  Both teams have great defenses, but they're very familiar to the offenses, which will cut through them for the over.  Back the niners because Kaepernick has shown he can win games throwing AND/OR running the football.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5):

ATS: Bengals  O/U: Under (41)

This will be a homage to old school football.  This will be a slobberknocker with big hits coming from both sides of the James Harrison bowl.  A.J. Green puts the Bengals over the top, but this seems like a 17-10 scoreline.


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