Sunday, September 8, 2013

NFL Week 1: You Can Bet On It

It's finally here.  The NFL season starts and it is finally time for me to make some real money.  Last year, I finished 13 games over .500, and I'm back for more.  This time with some more stats that I use for each matchup.

BUF (+10) vs. NE seems like a sucker bet -- as if Vegas is daring you to have faith in the Bills.  Here’s the thing, I’m ignoring the spread.  Both teams were .500 performers against the spread last year Instead, I’m taking the over (51.5).  This game has hit the over 5 of the last 6 times they’ve played.

TEN (+6.5) @ PIT is going to be closer than most people think.  Both teams were bad against the spreads last year (6-10 and 6-9-1 respectively).  The Steelers do not possess an offense that can run away from anyone. Give me TEN and the points

ATL (+3) @ NO I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: There is no more motivated NFL team than the Saints.  If I only have to go give 3 points with the Saints at home, I’m taking the Saints and trusting Brees & Co.

KC (-3) @ JAX the picture says it least if you believe the media hype.  New coach Andy Reid has made stars out of lesser players, and now he has Dwayne Bowe and Jamaal Charles.  Look out.  I’d take KC if the spread was six.  Great value bet here.
CIN (+3.5) @ CHI is a very important game for both teams.  Should be very, very close.  Watch for the hook with this one (the extra .5 point) because CHI was 7-8-1 ATS last season.  That extra half point sways me to back the Bengals

TB (-2.5) @ NYJ will not be a close game.  Revis island, the best part of the Jets last year, is in Tampa.  And even though the Bucs were 7-9 last year, they were 9-6-1 ATS, and they got better talent-wise this year.  Take the Bucs and lay down the points.

CLE (+1) vs. MIA will be the home-dog of the week pick.  If you pick games every week, you must pick at least one home team who is getting points.  CLE has one of the best sets of coordinators in the league.  MIA...doesn’t. Give me CLE to win outright.

CAR (+3) vs. SEA will be fun to watch, but easy to predict.  CAR is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games at home.  SEA was 11-5 ATS last season.  It smells like a BIG Seahawks win.  Back the Hawks on the road and lay down the 3.

MIN (+3.5) @ DET will be the beginning to the tale of two teams going in opposite directions this season.  The numbers don’t reflect it with Detroit going 5-10-1 ATS last year, but I think they buck that trend and will give the 3.5 and take the Lions at home.

OAK (-11) @ IND is a huge mismatch, but 11 points?  Seems to be a little too much.  This is not to say that the Raiders will keep this game close, but a garbage time TD to bring a 31-17 game to 31-24 is a cover for the Raiders.  11 is too many, take the Raiders and hold your breath.

ARZ (+3.5) @ STL will be a very telling game for both teams.  Both need to grab wins where they can because their schedules are very difficult.  I’m taking STL and giving the points because they were 11-5 ATS last season.

SF (-4.5) vs. GB is, along with ATL/NO, the marquis matchup of the day.  I can see this game go either way, so I am avoiding the spread and going with the over (50.5).  Last 5 SF games = 5 overs.

NYG (+3) @ DAL is completely unpredictable. The Giants, however, are 5-1 in their last 6 @DAL, which is enough for me to take the Giants and the three points -- with no confidence.


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